Weather forecasts

[Tinkerbell]

I'm beginning to wonder about the accuracy of UK weather forecasts -

I've been keeping an eye on weather forecasts for the Lake District recently and they are changing almost daily, from what was forecast previously. Some give 5 or 10 day information, on which you might base a holiday - only to discover that conditions have been better/worse than forecast. Neighbours have just returned from Ambleside, and had no real weather complaints even though the forecast for the area wasn't good. We put off going to another Lakes area because of poor forecasts, for the same period.

As a volunteer on a local heritage railway, I know that management is concerned about 'death by inaccurate forecasting' which can affect the public's decision making regarding travel and enjoyment of the countryside and other attractions. Regularly rain is forecast which does not materialise - here today the forecast from one site is for heavy rain, whilst another is not so pessimistic, and so far it is warm and dry.

(No doubt, as soon as I post this thread the heavens will open - but it will be interesting to see how the weather pans out today)!

Tinkerbell

[mh68]

Up here the daily tv forecasts have been out by about 6hrs for the last couple of weeks. Wasted a lot of mornings not going out due to the forecast, only to find the bad weather didnt move in until much later than they predicted.A mate of mine has wasted several days when he could be out surveying, due to poor weather being forecast which didnt materialise.
It does make you wonder how they manage to be so innaccurate with all the technology they have now, when people using more traditional forecasting tools/techniques are usually a lot more accurate.
The online forecasts are a joke at times - go to half a dozen different weather sites and you`ll get a totally different forecast from each one - ranging from brilliant sunshine to torrential rain and thunder!! waste of time imo...

Mark H

[Paul mabbott]

Yes, we've had a big thread on this before. I tend to ignore the Met Office on on the BBC but find -
Metcheck.com - UK Weather Forecasts - Live Data - Long Range Weather Forecasts
- more reliable.

On the other hand, the weather in the Lake District, like other upland areas, is pretty difficult to predict so we're always going to get a few surprises!

[Tinkerbell]

Took a look at Metcheck Paul, and I will make a point of visiting them in future. It bears out my point - last week another site suggested Tues/Wed/Thurs next week would be mainly sunny, but that is not what Metcheck suggests.

Although I appreciate weather is possibly a difficult subject to predict, there are an awful lot of experts giving different opinions, and 5/10 day forecasts may not be as accurate in the long term - so why give them?

Tinkerbell

[galanthus]

Originally Posted by Paul mabbott

Yes, we've had a big thread on this before. I tend to ignore the Met Office on on the BBC but find -
Metcheck.com - UK Weather Forecasts - Live Data - Long Range Weather Forecasts
- more reliable.

what's happened to metcheck ? Totally different now, appears to be a shopping site. Does anyone have new address for it ?

[mh68]

Originally Posted by galanthus

what's happened to metcheck ? Totally different now, appears to be a shopping site. Does anyone have new address for it ?

Just tried a google search and it looks as though it no longer exists

Mark H

[Paul mabbott]

Bit of a nuisance - looks as if someone else has grabbed the domain. Hopefully it will return as something similar (metcheck.co.uk or the like).

This one isn't as comprehensive but quite good:
7 day Weather forecast - Local UK weather - Netweather.tv

[galanthus]

It's back now Hooray

[mh68]

Weird how it temporarily disappeared, but nice to see its back online now - it did look like a decent weather page

Mark H

[ron1863]

Originally Posted by mh68

Weird how it temporarily disappeared, but nice to see its back online now - it did look like a decent weather page

Mark H

Hi Mark, it disappeared because they were changing to a new server. I looked at my area - wish I hadn't bothered.

[mh68]

Originally Posted by ron1863

Hi Mark, it disappeared because they were changing to a new server. I looked at my area - wish I hadn't bothered.

Oh right.Sorry to hear its a bit manky up there today mate, fingers crossed the suns shows itself for you soon

Mark H

[The Black Rabbit]

Ahhhh....
The British talking about the weather!
I hate forecasters reliance on the phrase "sunshine and showers" when they can't make their mind up (rather than just the actual weather not making its mind up).
Completely useless information!
TBR

[ron1863]

Originally Posted by mh68

Oh right.Sorry to hear its a bit manky up there today mate, fingers crossed the suns shows itself for you soon

Mark H

Not according to their forecast - Sunday looks not bad