winter forecasts

[zak robinson]

it is going to be a cold winter this year

the reason for this is because it it the hale cycle this year and the nao is negative so there will be some decent snow for once. the hale cycle is the reason why we had a cold suummer. the hale cycle is a 22-23 year cycle where the sunspots are at a minimum. in 1998 11 years ago the sunspots were at a maximum. so every 11 years it changes.

ive also seen on one website but cant remember what it is that we may have a repeat of the winter of 1963.

[James M]

People always say its going to be a very cold winter, its the same every year, mind you the newspapers don't make any better with their annual "Britain faces big freeze" headlines if not that its "100mph storms to lash Britain". Oh and just because the NAO is negative now doesn't mean it can't change and those long range forecasts are really only to be used as a guide not as fact and as for the Hale cycle, well we will see if it holds true in February.

[Interpreter]

Here we go. I will give you an accurate weather forcast for the whole of the UK for autumn/winter 2007.

This year the autumn and winter conditions will be average for this time of year, with local variations. There will be a 50% chance of snow.

I also do psychic readings with the same degree of accuracy.

[Kerry]

Has anyone noticed a much larger influx of migrant birds than usual? We have massive numbers of Fieldfares, far greater than normal, as well as a large influx of Robins. I was wondering if this signifies that we will be having a colder than usual winter.

[kiwi]

i hope the Hedgehogs will be ok i doubt it will snow on Christmas this year

[James M]

Originally Posted by Kerry

Has anyone noticed a much larger influx of migrant birds than usual? We have massive numbers of Fieldfares, far greater than normal, as well as a large influx of Robins. I was wondering if this signifies that we will be having a colder than usual winter.

Won't that just mean that where ever those birds have come from has a poor crop of berries or something like that.

[kiwi]

somebody tell me the Hedgehogs will be ok?!?

[honeybee]

Noticing a huge amount of berries on the trees which is an indicator it may be colder, certainly chilly here past few days, quite a sharp frost this morn.

[Meles meles]

Originally Posted by kiwi

somebody tell me the Hedgehogs will be ok?!?

As long as you all install central heating into your hog homes

[galanthus]

Originally Posted by honeybee

Noticing a huge amount of berries on the trees which is an indicator it may be colder, certainly chilly here past few days, quite a sharp frost this morn.

Hmmm, tho huge amount of berries could be due to the excessive rainfall we've had over the summer. Good juicy crops of them. May be chillier but I'm still in my long skirts, strappy tops, (with cardy in the mornings tho) and sandals

[honeybee]

Originally Posted by galanthus

Hmmm, tho huge amount of berries could be due to the excessive rainfall we've had over the summer. Good juicy crops of them. May be chillier but I'm still in my long skirts, strappy tops, (with cardy in the mornings tho) and sandals

ahhh, sunny south wales

[Jez]

Originally Posted by kiwi

somebody tell me the Hedgehogs will be ok?!?

I'm sure Hedgehogs have hibernated through severe winters before! Does that help any?

[kiwi]

yes alot now i can be happy

[briar rose]

I didn't catch it all, but the weather girl this morning said the Bewick Swans had arrived somewhere in the UK early this year, the last time they arrived this early we had a very cold winter, so maybe we are in for a cold few months, only time will tell

[glsammy]

Originally Posted by Kerry

Has anyone noticed a much larger influx of migrant birds than usual? We have massive numbers of Fieldfares, far greater than normal, as well as a large influx of Robins. I was wondering if this signifies that we will be having a colder than usual winter.

Funny, I was thinking exactly the opposite! I haven't seen a Fieldfare or a Redwing yet. Regional variations I suppose.
As for weather forecasts, the professionals can't get it right 6 hours ahead, never mind three months. Three times I've recently gone out early on promises of clear skies only to be met by thick cloud.

[mh68]

I`ve noticed more Redwings and Fieldfares locally than I usually see all winter.Maybe we`ve got your share Graham?
Can`t speak for everyone else but it`d be nice to get a proper cold winter instead of the usual miserable rain.

Mark H

[glsammy]

Originally Posted by mh68

I`ve noticed more Redwings and Fieldfares locally than I usually see all winter.Maybe we`ve got your share Graham?
Can`t speak for everyone else but it`d be nice to get a proper cold winter instead of the usual miserable rain.

Mark H

I'd agree with your there Mark. I love cold weather, or at least I think I do, it's been so long since we had one my memory might be playing tricks on me!

[honeybee]

Originally Posted by glsammy

Funny, I was thinking exactly the opposite! I haven't seen a Fieldfare or a Redwing yet. Regional variations I suppose.
As for weather forecasts, the professionals can't get it right 6 hours ahead, never mind three months. Three times I've recently gone out early on promises of clear skies only to be met by thick cloud.

We've got them in Glos. Been here a couple of weeks.

[Kerry]

Originally Posted by glsammy

Funny, I was thinking exactly the opposite! I haven't seen a Fieldfare or a Redwing yet. Regional variations I suppose.
As for weather forecasts, the professionals can't get it right 6 hours ahead, never mind three months. Three times I've recently gone out early on promises of clear skies only to be met by thick cloud.

Our influx must have been passing through on their way to somewhere else as they have now all disappeared. And not even a photograph. It really isn't my lucky week.

[Kerry]

Originally Posted by mh68

I`ve noticed more Redwings and Fieldfares locally than I usually see all winter.Maybe we`ve got your share Graham?
Can`t speak for everyone else but it`d be nice to get a proper cold winter instead of the usual miserable rain.

Mark H

Most definitely it would be wonderful to have hard frosts and even snow. Roll on a hard winter - mind you I do have a nice warm house to tuck up in and it probably isn't so nice for the wildlife. We had frost this morning and it was wonderful.

[mrs fish]

Originally Posted by briar rose

I didn't catch it all, but the weather girl this morning said the Bewick Swans had arrived somewhere in the UK early this year, the last time they arrived this early we had a very cold winter, so maybe we are in for a cold few months, only time will tell

Yes I heard this also I think there is some bad weather already in Siberia, I don't really wish for a bad winter I worry about the wildlife and my gas bill along with global warming

[paulchandler6]

I think the overall picture in the UK is that winter migrants have roughly arrived at the normal time. There may be abundances of migrants in certain areas due to wind drift on routes or displacement due to other weather patterns. I believe it is the usual time for snow to arrive in Siberia and Scandanavia about late August and this pushes the migrants South.
I think its a case of wait and see as to who is right and make the most of whatever we get. After all we cant change it.

Paul

[karl2707]

Hey Guys for all the people that are talking about a hale cycle there is only a chnace of aroung 25% at this time there are no signs of this but weather can change at any time. People are atlking about snow before bonfire nite lets see if it does it will be over high grounds and mostly from scotland. my report from the met office is below.

Dear Karl

I have no knowledge about whether there will be a Hale Cycle this year,
like 1985, although it is 22 years since the last one and that is when
it is due, but I am not sure about its accuracy. Here at the Met Office
we do not look into the suns magnetic field, as it is not a
meteorological parameter, There are others who think it does have an
impact , but we can find no correlation of any significance. The weather
does not follow a 22 year cycle and all the evidence indicates it is
quite variable during the years, some cold, some mild.

Whether we will have any snow before Christmas depends where you are in
the UK. Scotland is almost certain, although whether it will settle very
much is uncertain. Here in Exeter, I suspect the risk is relatively low,
but you never know. We certainly have no idea of which dates might be
most likely.

As for snow on bonfire night, well there is a possibility for Scotland,
mainly over the hills, but I would be very surprised to see any anywhere
else, and even Scotland is a very low probability.

I hope this helps, and thank you for your interest.

Kind regards

Dan Horseman
Customer Centre, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom. Tel: 0870 900 0100 Fax: 0870 900 5050 Email: customercentre@metoffice.gov.uk

[russj1975]

with some European ski resorts now permanently closed due to lack of snow, i think that says it all for our chances of decent snowfall! If they cant get it in the alpes, what chance is there for a good covering in leafy Surrey!!!

I would love a really bitter winter, there is nothing like it - especially walking in the hills. Why do so many people hate snow??

[LUPUS]

Originally Posted by glsammy

Funny, I was thinking exactly the opposite! I haven't seen a Fieldfare or a Redwing yet. Regional variations I suppose.
As for weather forecasts, the professionals can't get it right 6 hours ahead, never mind three months. Three times I've recently gone out early on promises of clear skies only to be met by thick cloud.

I now wish I had kept a note of arrival times as I have seen winter thrushes in Notts and Sth Derbyshire for at least 8 Days. Whilst I was sceptical when a friend told me we were going to have a cold winter I now have a more open mind on it.