Winter 2007/2008 inital thoughts.

[snowmadchrisuk]

We are quickly approaching the autum months now, and what with this year suppose to be a hale winter, the current la nina situation low sst's and this wet summer we have been having, I thought it was about time we had a thread for our initial winter thoughts as this year I think things that are happening now are going to have a huge effect on this winters events for the uk.

Cold pooling is already building almost double the speed it did last year and at the end of the gfs run it is far more extensive than last year .

Hale winters happen every 22/23 years. this is the 23rd year. A hale winter is often combined with a below avarage cold snowy winter.

La nina has been strenthening recently and is now moderate to strong.

Does anybody out there have any thoughts and also im looking for some links to current long range forecasts for the coming winter.

Regards

Chris

[wyevilla]

Hi Chris

Welcome to WAB. I'm sure you'll get alot out of it

Not heard of a Hale Winter before - I'd be interested in more info.

Is "la nina" the same "el nino"?? Does it have relevance to our northern climes?

[Ukwildlifeo]

Being the weather seems to be reminisant of a certain animated scene from Monty pythons holy grail in goin for the warmest autumn and December on record followed by record braking snow in january followed by autumn in february: impossible I hear you cry - but then it is british weather...

[snowmadchrisuk]

Originally Posted by wyevilla

Hi Chris

Welcome to WAB. I'm sure you'll get alot out of it

Not heard of a Hale Winter before - I'd be interested in more info.

Is "la nina" the same "el nino"?? Does it have relevance to our northern climes?

I have dug out some information about the hale winter below.

There is an approximately 22 to 23 year cycle of severe winters, with the one of 1870/71 falling into this category. This singularity holds good to the present with the subsequent winters of 1894/95, 1916/17, 1939/40, 1962/63 and 1984/85 also very cold. All these winters were preceded (a warning if you like) and followed by some very cold individual months. With the next cold winter in this cycle due this year, it will be interesting to see if this pattern holds true.

The 22 to 23 year weather cycle is in fact dependent on a magnetic effect known as the Hale cycle. This encompasses two sun spot cycles. The Hale cycle starts and ends at points of minimum sun spot activity. Period of high geomagnetic activity, such as there is at present and there was in the early 1870s, can cause weather extremes. Both 1868 and 1870 produced droughts for example, followed by excessive storms and floods in 1872 when the Trent burst its banks. August and December in 1872 were particularly wet, with six and half inches of rain (three times the average) falling on Bingham in December that year.

and your other question

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

regards

Chris

[Jay77]

There's an interesting thread on the Netweather website about this, although I have to say I understood about one word in 10 of the technical stuff.

Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA) - Weather Forum - UK and Worldwide Weather Discussion

[Tormentil]

Originally Posted by snowmadchrisuk

Does anybody out there have any thoughts....

Que Sera, Sera.

[Billy Wobble Dagger]

Originally Posted by snowmadchrisuk

We are quickly approaching the autum months now, and what with this year suppose to be a hale winter, the current la nina situation low sst's and this wet summer we have been having, I thought it was about time we had a thread for our initial winter thoughts as this year I think things that are happening now are going to have a huge effect on this winters events for the uk.

Cold pooling is already building almost double the speed it did last year and at the end of the gfs run it is far more extensive than last year .

Hale winters happen every 22/23 years. this is the 23rd year. A hale winter is often combined with a below avarage cold snowy winter.

La nina has been strenthening recently and is now moderate to strong.

Does anybody out there have any thoughts and also im looking for some links to current long range forecasts for the coming winter.

Regards

Chris

I only have one thought, where can I buy a ice breaking ark

BWD

[ChrisJB]

A Hale Winter eh? Never come across this term before. Lets hope it delivers what it promises. A 1947er or 63er would be just marvellous.

Regards, Chris

[snowmadchrisuk]

well, I cant say I understand some of the replys on here but what my line of thinking was that as a forum about wildlife, i believe there are signs about the upcoming winter based on the way our wildlife reacts, the way our trees fruit elc... I'm a big follower of the country file forecast on bbc1 on a sunday, ( although I do not have that much faith in everton fox whos bbc monthly outlook isnt that accurate imo) But I do believe were in for a cold winter this year and this will have a majour effect on wildlife plants and so on who have be come accustomed to warm summers and above avarage months through out the year which has shortened winter and extended the summer months. This year because of the southerly tracking jet and the la nina situation I believe we are going to have a far more avarage year i'm not saying 1963 repeated (although simaler signs are there at the moment that were present in august 62.) but at least as cold as maybe 1985. bill giles former forecaster at the bbc prediced the 2007 wet summer and also has predicted a severe winter for 2007 for the uk. Interesting times ahead.

regards

Chris

[galanthus]

I think I may need to purchase a few more brain cells before I read snowmad's postings from now lol