Winter 2007/2008 inital thoughts.

snowmadchrisuk · #1 (**permalink**) 21-08-2007, 10:27 PM

We are quickly approaching the autum months now, and what with this year suppose to be a hale winter, the current la nina situation low sst's and this wet summer we have been having, I thought it was about time we had a thread for our initial winter thoughts as this year I think things that are happening now are going to have a huge effect on this winters events for the uk.

Cold pooling is already building almost double the speed it did last year and at the end of the gfs run it is far more extensive than last year .

Hale winters happen every 22/23 years. this is the 23rd year. A hale winter is often combined with a below avarage cold snowy winter.

La nina has been strenthening recently and is now moderate to strong.

Does anybody out there have any thoughts and also im looking for some links to current long range forecasts for the coming winter.

Regards

Chris

wyevilla · #2 (**permalink**) 21-08-2007, 10:34 PM

Hi Chris

Welcome to WAB. I'm sure you'll get alot out of it

Not heard of a Hale Winter before - I'd be interested in more info.

Is "la nina" the same "el nino"?? Does it have relevance to our northern climes?

Ukwildlifeo · #3 (**permalink**) 21-08-2007, 10:39 PM

Being the weather seems to be reminisant of a certain animated scene from Monty pythons holy grail in goin for the warmest autumn and December on record followed by record braking snow in january followed by autumn in february: impossible I hear you cry - but then it is british weather...

snowmadchrisuk · #4 (**permalink**) 21-08-2007, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wyevilla

Hi Chris

Welcome to WAB. I'm sure you'll get alot out of it

Not heard of a Hale Winter before - I'd be interested in more info.

Is "la nina" the same "el nino"?? Does it have relevance to our northern climes?

I have dug out some information about the hale winter below.

There is an approximately 22 to 23 year cycle of severe winters, with the one of 1870/71 falling into this category. This singularity holds good to the present with the subsequent winters of 1894/95, 1916/17, 1939/40, 1962/63 and 1984/85 also very cold. All these winters were preceded (a warning if you like) and followed by some very cold individual months. With the next cold winter in this cycle due this year, it will be interesting to see if this pattern holds true.

The 22 to 23 year weather cycle is in fact dependent on a magnetic effect known as the Hale cycle. This encompasses two sun spot cycles. The Hale cycle starts and ends at points of minimum sun spot activity. Period of high geomagnetic activity, such as there is at present and there was in the early 1870s, can cause weather extremes. Both 1868 and 1870 produced droughts for example, followed by excessive storms and floods in 1872 when the Trent burst its banks. August and December in 1872 were particularly wet, with six and half inches of rain (three times the average) falling on Bingham in December that year.

and your other question

La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.

regards

Chris

Jay77 · #5 (**permalink**) 22-08-2007, 07:36 AM

There's an interesting thread on the Netweather website about this, although I have to say I understood about one word in 10 of the technical stuff.

Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA) - Weather Forum - UK and Worldwide Weather Discussion

Tormentil · #6 (**permalink**) 22-08-2007, 07:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowmadchrisuk

Does anybody out there have any thoughts....

Que Sera, Sera.

Billy Wobble Dagger · #7 (**permalink**) 22-08-2007, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowmadchrisuk

We are quickly approaching the autum months now, and what with this year suppose to be a hale winter, the current la nina situation low sst's and this wet summer we have been having, I thought it was about time we had a thread for our initial winter thoughts as this year I think things that are happening now are going to have a huge effect on this winters events for the uk.

Cold pooling is already building almost double the speed it did last year and at the end of the gfs run it is far more extensive than last year .

Hale winters happen every 22/23 years. this is the 23rd year. A hale winter is often combined with a below avarage cold snowy winter.

La nina has been strenthening recently and is now moderate to strong.

Does anybody out there have any thoughts and also im looking for some links to current long range forecasts for the coming winter.

Regards

Chris

I only have one thought, where can I buy a ice breaking ark

BWD

ChrisJB · #8 (**permalink**) 22-08-2007, 08:22 PM

A Hale Winter eh? Never come across this term before. Lets hope it delivers what it promises. A 1947er or 63er would be just marvellous.

Regards, Chris

snowmadchrisuk · #9 (**permalink**) 22-08-2007, 08:22 PM

well, I cant say I understand some of the replys on here but what my line of thinking was that as a forum about wildlife, i believe there are signs about the upcoming winter based on the way our wildlife reacts, the way our trees fruit elc... I'm a big follower of the country file forecast on bbc1 on a sunday, ( although I do not have that much faith in everton Fox whos bbc monthly outlook isnt that accurate imo) But I do believe were in for a cold winter this year and this will have a majour effect on wildlife plants and so on who have be come accustomed to warm summers and above avarage months through out the year which has shortened winter and extended the summer months. This year because of the southerly tracking jet and the la nina situation I believe we are going to have a far more avarage year i'm not saying 1963 repeated (although simaler signs are there at the moment that were present in august 62.) but at least as cold as maybe 1985. bill giles former forecaster at the bbc prediced the 2007 wet summer and also has predicted a severe winter for 2007 for the uk. Interesting times ahead.

regards

Chris

galanthus · #10 (**permalink**) 22-08-2007, 08:34 PM

I think I may need to purchase a few more brain cells before I read snowmad's postings from now lol

wyevilla · #11 (**permalink**) 23-08-2007, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowmadchrisuk

well, I cant say I understand some of the replys on here but what my line of thinking was that as a forum about wildlife, i believe there are signs about the upcoming winter based on the way our wildlife reacts, the way our trees fruit elc...

Hi Chris

Are you saytng that wildlife can predict weather patterns months in advance?

paulchandler6 · #12 (**permalink**) 24-08-2007, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowmadchrisuk

well, I cant say I understand some of the replys on here but what my line of thinking was that as a forum about wildlife, i believe there are signs about the upcoming winter based on the way our wildlife reacts, the way our trees fruit elc...

I feel the fauna and flora are reactive rather than proactive in respect of weather, there are some exceptions based on evolutionary responses (migration from northern climes to southerly ones), but in general trees produce more seeds based on the growing season they are in. Birds will move after heavy snow or continued freezing to areas where it is clear. Several years back I counted in excess of 15,000 lapwings flying SE after days of snow in order to find ground where they could feed. I know its more complicated than that. Does anyone have any more thoughts on this? Cheers

snowmadchrisuk · #13 (**permalink**) 25-08-2007, 01:12 PM

I know there are cirtain birds that have more instinct than others. On this front you can probably gather I Have been listning to some old farmers tales, but some farmers swear by there methods. My initial thoughts now have moved on to more of a worry that we may have high pressure right on top of us, Which will make it cold but not that snowy. Fog is likely to become a problem as early as next week with sunny days rather cold nights and light winds under high pressure seems to me to be the classic ingrediants needed for fog.

By the end of the gfs run cold pooling is starting to advect down into the nw atlanitc and also into the northern extent of the north sea to our east. By november I expect this to start advecting westwards from the east towards the uk.

Our best chances this year I think comes from the east, also I think we have a strong chance of a polar low hopefully around christmas. It is deffanatly a case of getting high pressure in the right place hence my worry about high pressure on top of us. But current indications suggest northern blocking will be much more persistant this year. Also for the next month or so expect it to be dry, maybe not that warm but dry as the azores high seems to want to build right over us but the high is possitioned wrong meaning it can not drag in the really warm air that some would like.

Anyway nice to read all your comments

Chris

Gaina · #14 (**permalink**) 25-08-2007, 05:31 PM

My GS Woodpecker has been merrily hammering nuts into holes he made in our telephone pole in the front garden this week. I can't explain it but everything just feels like it's 'turning' earlier this year.

I have never seen Somerset with real snow, so this will be a real treat for me (and my camera) if it transpires

snowmadchrisuk · #15 (**permalink**) 26-08-2007, 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaina

My GS Woodpecker has been merrily hammering nuts into holes he made in our telephone pole in the front garden this week. I can't explain it but everything just feels like it's 'turning' earlier this year.

I have never seen Somerset with real snow, so this will be a real treat for me (and my camera) if it transpires

I live in the east midlands now, so we have a far better chance of snow, but i'm origanally from weston-super-mare and never seen any real settled snow living there. where abouts in somerset do you live? weston is in north somerset.

Gaina · #16 (**permalink**) 26-08-2007, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowmadchrisuk

I live in the east midlands now, so we have a far better chance of snow, but i'm origanally from weston-super-mare and never seen any real settled snow living there. where abouts in somerset do you live? weston is in north somerset.

I live not far from weston, actually. I don't mind if we don't get the deep snow I used to experience in Northumberland - a very hard frost would do!

nightshade · #17 (**permalink**) 26-08-2007, 02:22 PM

I can recall winters in the Mendip North Somerset area that filled the lanes to the top of the hedges,ice on the rhododondrum leaves and serious motorists owned chains for their car wheels
Currently my Pyracantha has berries and blossom as does an apple tree just up the road

snowmadchrisuk · #18 (**permalink**) 26-08-2007, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nightshade

I can recall winters in the Mendip North Somerset area that filled the lanes to the top of the hedges,ice on the rhododondrum leaves and serious motorists owned chains for their car wheels
Currently my Pyracantha has berries and blossom as does an apple tree just up the road

Yes the mendips are quite high up thou where as weston is obviously at sea level.

A good example would be that weston is lucky to get a very light temperary covering once every 10 years but wales just across the water has some of the highest recorded snowfall totals recorded in recent years. When it comes to snowfall height is everything.

Jez · #19 (**permalink**) 26-08-2007, 11:32 PM

We did have good snowfall in 1981 i remember being stuck in on my birthday i was 10 at the time & the snow drift made it impossible to get out! But i had new pressies games and toys to keep me amused.

emmz · #20 (**permalink**) 27-08-2007, 03:49 PM

Noticing the years I have lived down here in the South, it is a section I live in that usually misses the heavy snows or the likes, which is a shame.

I think the wildlife DO know what weather is ahead of us. If only they could talk, but watching them is showing some very unusual patterns to the norm.

emmz

cardiff123098 · #21 (**permalink**) 27-08-2007, 04:50 PM

hey

yep we do have quite a bit in Wales when it Snows in Febuary we had 15cm just outside Cardiff

Jez · #22 (**permalink**) 28-08-2007, 07:49 PM

I work in a large barn which is freezing throughout the winter period. The busy Christmas shopping is the only thing to keep me warm. But i think i'll prepare myself for a cold blast incase and will warn all staff of a cold winter pending! So thanks for the tip off! My brothers are adept snowborders so they'll be stoked!!!

Pagan_Dave · #23 (**permalink**) 13-09-2007, 10:53 AM

Oh yes, i'm looking forward to some good old snow fall again!

September · #24 (**permalink**) 14-09-2007, 02:11 AM

Just had a gander at the Met Office site, and to cut all the scientific language out of it seems their early prediction (issued mid July) for winter 2007/8 is to be both cooler and with less precipitation than last winter, though slightly above the 1971-2000 average temperature.

So prepare for the exact opposite of that, and you'll be fine!

richardkm · #25 (**permalink**) 14-09-2007, 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snowmadchrisuk

The 22 to 23 year weather cycle is in fact dependent on a magnetic effect known as the Hale cycle. This encompasses two sun spot cycles. The Hale cycle starts and ends at points of minimum sun spot activity.

Chris

Isn't a sunspot cycle actually 22 years? I know 11 years is often quoted, but when I did a course on astrophysics, it was explained that after 11 years the polarity of the sunspot changed, then continued for another 11 years, so in effect there was a sine wave.