If the Earth .......

[Varan Komodosky]

demicav, I have great hope for the future of the earth, however I cannot see the state of the sorry old place improving while the human species is knocking around. Just to cheer you - yes, you demicav! You can read this little quote about what is known as the 'Holocene Mass Extinction Event'.
"The Holocene extinction event is a name customarily given to the widespread, ongoing mass extinction of species during the modern Holocene epoch. The large number of extinctions span numerous families of plants and animals including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and arthropods; a sizeable fraction of these extinctions are occurring in the rainforests. Because the rate of this extinction event appears to be much more rapid than the "Big Five" mass extinctions, it is also known as the Sixth Extinction. Since 1500 AD, 784 extinctions have been documented by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. However, since most extinctions are likely to go undocumented, scientists estimate that during the last century, between 20,000 and two million species have become extinct, but the precise total cannot be determined more accurately within the limits of present knowledge. Up to 140,000 species per year (based on Species-area theory) may be the present rate of extinction based upon upper bound estimating."

Significantly, the rate of species extinctions at present is estimated at 100 to 1000 times "background" or average extinction rates in the evolutionary time scale of planet Earth; moreover, this current rate of extinction is thus 10 to 100 times greater than any of the prior mass extinction events in the history of the Earth.

Megafaunal extinctions continue to the present day. Modern extinctions are more directly attributable to human influences. Extinction rates are minimized in the popular imagination by the survival of captive trophy populations of animals that are merely "extinct in the wild," (Père David's Deer, etc) and by marginal survivals of highly-publicized megafauna that is "ecologically extinct" (Giant Panda, Sumatran Rhinoceros, the North American Black-Footed Ferret, etc.) and by unregarded extinctions among arthropods. Some notable examples of modern extinctions of "charismatic" mammal fauna include:

Aurochs, Europe
Tarpan, Europe
Thylacine or Tasmanian Tiger, Thylacinus cynocephalus, Tasmania [extinction disputed]
Quagga, a zebra relative, Southeast Africa
Steller's Sea Cow

The Baiji, or Chinese River Dolphin, was declared functionally extinct in 2006.Many birds have become extinct as a result of human activity, especially birds endemic to islands, including many flightless birds (see a more complete list under extinct birds). Notable extinct birds include:

the Dodo, the giant flightless pigeon of Mauritius, Indian Ocean
the Great Auk of islands in the north Atlantic
the Passenger Pigeon of North America
several species of Moa, giant flightless birds from New Zealand
the Carolina Parakeet of the American southeast

Most biologists believe that we are at this moment at the beginning of a tremendously accelerated anthropogenic mass extinction. E.O. Wilson of Harvard, in The Future of Life (2002), estimates that at current rates of human disruption of the biosphere, one-half of all species of life will be extinct in 100 years. In 1998 the American Museum of Natural History conducted a poll of biologists that revealed that the vast majority of biologists believe that we are in the midst of an anthropogenic mass extinction. Numerous scientific studies since then—such as a 2004 report from Nature, and those by the 10,000 scientists who contribute to the IUCN's annual Red List of threatened species—have only strengthened this consensus.

Peter Raven, past President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, states in the foreword to their publication AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment: "We have driven the rate of biological extinction, the permanent loss of species, up several hundred times beyond its historical levels, and are threatened with the loss of a majority of all species by the end of the 21st century." The reasons for the current mass extinction are all human related and include deforestation and other habitat destruction, hunting and poaching, the introduction of non-native species, pollution and climate change.


The Golden Toad of Costa Rica, extinct since around 1989. Its disappearance has been attributed to climate change.Evidence for all previous extinction events is geological in nature, and the shortest scales of geological time are in the order of several hundred thousand to several million years. Even those extinction events that were caused by instantaneous events — the Chicxulub asteroid impact being currently the demonstrable example — unfold through the equivalent of many human lifetimes, due to the complex ecological interactions that are unleashed by the event.

There was a limited debate as to the extent to which the disappearance of megafauna at the end of the last ice age can also be attributed to human activities, directly, by hunting, or indirectly, by decimation of prey populations. While climate change is still cited as another important factor, anthropogenic explanations have become predominant.

There is still hope, argue some, that humanity can eventually slow the rate of extinction through proper ecological management. Current socio-political and overpopulation trends, others argue, indicate that this idea is overly optimistic. Many hopes are set on sustainable development and conservation. 189 countries which are signatory to the Rio Accord have committed to preparing a Biodiversity Action Plan, a first step at identifying specific endangered species and habitats, country by country

Currently, the protected areas in the UNEP-WCMC protected areas database cover between 10 and 12% of the world's land mass. The information assessment is contested, in terms of size and IUCN protection category. Only about half of the area consists of fully protected areas in the IUCN categories I-IV. In the other half, forest exploitation can and usually does take place. So if of the other half, 50% would be effectively protected, somewhere between 7.5 and 9% would be protected. However, less than 50% of the protected areas in developing and transition countries has any field staff at all, while the areas with field staff are understaffed by at least 50% (estimate Vreugdenhil 2007). Expecting effective protection of even 7.5% seems rather optimistic.

When applying Arrhenius' (1921) "species-area curve", while assuming (1) the optimistic value z=.15 (Dobson 1996) to the protected land mass; a land cover protected effectively and durably of about 9%; all ecosystems represented using a fine distinction in ecosystems (Vreugdenhil et al. 2003) and stable ecological conditions, one may expect the conservation of 70% of the terrestrial species of the planet and according to this model the loss of 30%. There are no scientifically sound models to predict the effect of climate change on the survival of species. Changing ecological conditions resulting from climate change however, will impact the survival strategies of many species and particularly in the world's most diverse ecosystems, the humid tropical forests. There, the impact may be far reaching if climate change would intensify and prolong the dry seasons. If this would happen, more trees would seasonally shed their leaves, and the sun would penetrate forest levels that previously would never be exposed to direct sunlight. Many species would not be able to survive such conditions for prolonged periods of time. As there are no models to predict the effects, we may only speculate the impact on the species survival on earth, but whatever the outcome, its effect will be accumulated to the minimum species loss of 30%. Vreugdenhil (2007) on his blog speculates that another 10 - 20 % may be lost. Yet another 10% - 20 may be lost due to inadequate ecosystem representation and ineffective protection of the protected areas. Under the most optimistic scenario the world would lose 40% of its species, while under a more pessimistic scenario, the world may lose as much as 70% of its species. All this is expected to take place in the twenty first century and depending on the outcome of the measures to be taken, this will be among the most severe or even the single most severe species extinction event in the existence of the planet. Vreugdenhil (2007) in his blog argues that since this entire extinction event is due to human actions and at least a part of it is due to political inaction, this extinction event should be considered as a mass specicide.

That might not be as pretty as the little pipe-dream poem you posted, but it is reality here, now, today. In your lifetime and something you are contributing to (as are we all). I would suggest that's actually the reason why some of us come to this forum.

[demicav]

Originally Posted by Varan Komodosky

demicav, I have great hope for the future of the earth, however I cannot see the state of the sorry old place improving while the human species is knocking around. Just to cheer you - yes, you demicav! You can read this little quote about what is known as the 'Holocene Mass Extinction Event'.
"The Holocene extinction event is a name customarily given to the widespread, ongoing mass extinction of species during the modern Holocene epoch. The large number of extinctions span numerous families of plants and animals including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and arthropods; a sizeable fraction of these extinctions are occurring in the rainforests. Because the rate of this extinction event appears to be much more rapid than the "Big Five" mass extinctions, it is also known as the Sixth Extinction. Since 1500 AD, 784 extinctions have been documented by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. However, since most extinctions are likely to go undocumented, scientists estimate that during the last century, between 20,000 and two million species have become extinct, but the precise total cannot be determined more accurately within the limits of present knowledge. Up to 140,000 species per year (based on Species-area theory) may be the present rate of extinction based upon upper bound estimating."



That might not be as pretty as the little pipe-dream poem you posted, but it is reality here, now, today. In your lifetime and something you are contributing to (as are we all). I would suggest that's actually the reason why some of us come to this forum.

Yes I'm aware of all this although maybe not in as much detail. It's tragic and I sometimes feel ashamed to be human. The verse was posted as an idea for something that I could share with others. It's not my little pipe dream, just something that sounded nice and I thought some others may like to hear it. I honestly wish I hadn't bothered, not because I don't think you're entitled to your opinion because you are. I've realised that it wasn't the best thing to share with people on this site. It was something so simple and now it's something so oooo, and due to me posting it up and having such negative comments made about it I can't even read it in the same way now, it's changed my whole perception of it. The thing is I've learned from my mistake and will think twice next time but there you go we all live and learn.
Thank you all for your comments.

[eeyore]

if the earth was only 3ft in dia and floating above a field somewhere, a wab member would photograph it and start a "whats this ?" thread

[demicav]

Originally Posted by eeyore

if the earth was only 3ft in dia and floating above a field somewhere, a wab member would photograph it and start a "whats this ?" thread

That's very true.