select committee badger bovine Tb

[stigofthedump]

Did any one watch the select committees report on bovine Tb and badgers on BBC parliament last night? Its on BBci player under select committees.



Vince.

[Hoppingmad]

I didn't what was the gist of it?

Debbie

[stripee]

The report refers to the committee held on 5 November. The transcript is here Uncorrected Evidence 1178

but there's not alot thats news.

[Rob_D]

Q63 and 65 seem to be implying that there is some new figures of post-trial analysis from the ISG. Is there anything published?

[stripee]

I haven't found the original paper online - only basically the same as HB says, on other sites. It came out a few months back.
This is a link to the paper's publishers, you may be able to find something. Research done by Imperial College and published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, R Woodroffe, Jenkins and Donelly. Elsevier Article Locator

[Rob_D]

Thanks Stripee. Your link gave me the title, and through that I found there's a summary (bit more than abstract) here http://www.arthurrankcentre.org.uk/p.../rus08/715.pdf

In the committee questions (eg Q87) it seems like they were implying the newer post-trial results would change the decision not to cull in England, especially the reduction in bTb in the surrounding, non-culled areas. However, despite the fact they do show some further reduction in Tb after the cull has stopped, it doesn't really change the conclusions. Mr Benn seemed to sidestep that point;

Q87 Mr Cox: What I would remind you, Secretary of State, if I may, is that Rosie Woodroffe and the scientists have said as follows: that the beneficial effects may last. Now, that is what they concluded in their recent report, having shown that post-trial, two years post-trial, it is going down in the neighbouring areas and it is 54 per cent lower in the proactive area. In other words, you have shut the door before the evidence has had properly time to mature.

Hilary Benn: Well, I think in fairness to myself, I was urged actually to take a decision on this question.

This implies that Mr Benn might have reached a different conclusion about the effectiveness of culling in the light of this more recent information, and that is very worrying, because it would be a mistake. I think he should be unequivocal and just say that the post-trial analysis changes nothing. Here's the conclusion of the research paper.

When considering the data in their entirety, our analyses suggest that the overall reduction in the incidence of confirmed herd breakdowns associated with widespread badger culling remains modest (e.g., on average only 12 confirmed breakdowns prevented over six years by five annual culls targeting a 125 km2 area, compared with 130 confirmed breakdowns expected in the absence of culling).

The researchers explain that any reduction in the non-culled areas would be temporary, and would only occur once culling had stopped. That is, if you keep culling, it would keep spreading bTB to farms outside the cull area. So you'd still have to eradicate badgers over very large areas to have any positive effect on bTB, and that effect would be modest. I am not prepared to accept massive-scale eradication of badgers, even if it were effective, cheap and the last resort - and it's not any of those things.

[stripee]

RobD, I don´t think Hillary Benn will change his mind on culling. Another Secretary of State might, and a different government might, but I think HB will stick with his decision. His background, and his father´s mitigate against him making this kind of decision if he can avoid it. The NFU have dropped their judicial review on advice from Natural England although looking at other legal channels.
Wales is a different matter, but the logistics of what they would like to do is difficult and expensive and has the question of non cooperation to overcome.

The exterminations of the 70s required massive amounts of manpower and cooperation from the public who were told that they were in great danger of contracting TB from badgers. It was extremely cruel as gassing was found to be inhumane. I have just been reading The Cold Moons which is based on these culls, although fiction, a story of perturbations by hundreds of badgers!