Climate Change and Sea Level Rises

[Guinnessman1974]

Does anyone have the most accurate info on the predicted sea level rises around the U.K?

I read that the effects of sea levels rises in the south-east of england to be particularly acute.

This could have a devastating effect on migratory birds which rely on the estuary and mudflats for winter food.

[Rich_]

I wonder if it is possible to predict such things with any accuracy at all?

[Guinnessman1974]

Good point, the factors contributing to Climate change are varied, so I guess there would a wide margin of error.

I wonder what the worst case scenario would be be, and should or do policy makers plan for a worst case possible outcome?

[Rich_]

I would say a worst case would be many areas like the Somerset levels ,Fens and parts of Norfolk may be reclaimed by the sea, if it actually happens at all.

Judging by the last couple of weeks we seem to struggle with a few inches of snowfall which happens anually, so how we would cope with large areas of the UK submerged under the sea, and what policies are in place to deal with it you can only wonder.

[Guinnessman1974]

I don't reckon on there being sufficient governmental policies in place to deal with climate change and rising sea levels.

The government won't be able to bail us out as with the financial crisis.

The consensus amongst climate scientists is that climate change won't be a gradual 'smooth' process, rather that there are going to be some sharp, sudden and unpredictable shocks along the way. Who knows what and when will happen, no one yet knows.

Looking at the graph showing the increase in CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, it is an exponential curve, implying that the Earth's negative feedback mechanisms and ability to soak up CO2 - the Oceans, tropical forests etc. - are breaking down more rapidly than predicted.

[Hobjob]

Alarmist Doomsday warning of rising seas 'was wrong', says Met Office study

By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 8:13 AM on 6th December 2010
Comments (424)
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Alarming predictions that global warming could cause sea levels to rise 6ft in the next century are wrong, it has emerged.

The forecast made by the influential 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which would have seen cities around the world submerged by water, now looks ‘unlikely’.

A Met Office study also rules out the shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean’s conveyor belt, which would trigger Arctic winters in Britain like those seen in the film The Day After Tomorrow.


Only in the movies: A Met Office study rules out the shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean's conveyor belt, which would trigger Arctic winters in Britain like those seen in the film The Day After Tomorrow (pictured)

However, the report says the IPCC was right to warn of a sea level rise of up to 2ft by 2100, and that a 3ft rise could happen.

The IPCC underestimated the danger posed by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the release of methane from warmer wetlands, the report adds.

Vicky Pope, head of climate science at the Met Office, said: ‘In most cases, our new understanding has reinforced results from the IPCC report – and the degree of impact is about the same.’

The 2007 analysis was criticised last year after it was found to have wrongly claimed Himalayan glaciers could melt by 2035.

The Met Office analysis comes as world ministers fly to Cancun, Mexico, for the second week of UN climate change talks.


[ in terms of E Anglia where I live, one has to remember that it is sinking - can't remember how fast though ]

[Cotham Marble]

Originally Posted by Guinnessman1974

Does anyone have the most accurate info on the predicted sea level rises around the U.K? I read that the effects of sea levels rises in the south-east of england to be particularly acute. This could have a devastating effect on migratory birds which rely on the estuary and mudflats for winter food.

Firstly no self respecting climatologist or oceonographer would claim certainty on any prediction. What can be said is that certain aproaches to climate modelling appear to accord with observed changes, but no single model stands out as being unerringly accurate - indeed it would be incredible if it did, science is not a tool for telling the future beyond simple cause and effect processes.

A fairly comprehensive but simply presented summary of climate change science is available here: Climate Change: A Summary of the Science - Publications - The Royal Society from which there is a quote on Global sea level change:

Because of the thermal expansion of the ocean, it is very likely that for many centuries the rate of global sea-level rise will be at least as large as the rate of 20 cm per century that has been observed over the past century.

FOE have a good summary of UK locations likely to be affected Friends of the Earth: Briefing: GOING UNDER? - , although their rise/rate figures are best taken as worst case short term scenarios, however unless current warming is arrested the suggested habitat losses will eventually occur in a 50 - 250 year range. Some habitat gain/replacement may occur if low lying land is not rigourously defended though the crucial intertidal zones are by definition marginal to the likely total losses of land/marsh area caused by sea level rise and replacement of intertidal zones will likely be erratic and displaced from current locations.

CM

[basquesteve]

I thought the South East land mass has been sinking since the last ice age whats that got to do with rising carbon dioxide levels in any case estuaries and mud flats will continue to exist

[Cotham Marble]

Originally Posted by basquesteve

I thought the South East land mass has been sinking since the last ice age whats that got to do with rising carbon dioxide levels

There are a number of geological and climatological processes that affect the relationship between land and sea. There is a long term geological process that involves a very gradual deepening of the north sea basin, the effect on the UK is that SE England is sinking while the western parts of Britain are (relatively) rising. This is a process that has been going on for millions of years and will likely continue for millions more, currently estimated at a rate of 2mm per year (http://www.offshore-sea.org.uk/consu...A2_Geology.pdf - this source also suggests relative sea level rise in southern Britain = 70 cms by 2100 !)

A counter process that has led to land mass rise, is the isostatic bounce that has resulted from the removal of glaciers from the north and west of the UK, so while parts of Scotland are estimated to have risen by over 30 metres in the last 10,000 -20,000 years, the south has had no or very little isostatic rebound.

There is also a process of sediment deposition in the north sea basin which has the effect of displacing sea water upward relative to the surrounding land surfaces. Changes in sea level and storm activity can impact deposition rates.

Sea level rise through thermal expansion and polar ice melt are entirely separate from these geological processes, although an increase in the areas of shallow water may contribute marginally to local effects of thermal expansion. Global warming is undoubtedly occuring, the arguments are essentially about source, with a preponderance of scientific opinion agreed that anthopogenisis is a major contributor to current rates of warming. The effects of warming that are likely to affect coastal wildlife habitat are, sea level rise and increased storm activity - both frequency and energy.

CM

[Fuzzy-felt bloke]

Looking at the graph showing the increase in CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, it is an exponential curve

What graph are you looking at, is it the famous CO2 hockey stick, then be careful as some scientists suggest that it is wrong.

Fuzzy-Felt Bloke