Is bird flu still a threat?

gfilmsuk · #1 (**permalink**) 14-02-2008, 06:43 PM

I read somewhere the other day that the British government purchased 14.5 million doses of Tamiflu, which presumably has never been needed. There were reports that a pandemic could kill millions, nothing happened. I think that nearly all the birds to die, did so at the hands of humans.
So where did bird flu go, is the threat over or are we all still in danger?

Kayleigh · #2 (**permalink**) 14-02-2008, 07:21 PM

The Bird flu virus would have to mutate then lots of people would have to become infected before it becomes a pandemic...

There will be isolated out breaks of bird flu every now and again..

I think the vaccine is for vets and people who work in a close proximity to birds that have become infected..People in this country do not sleep in close quarters with poultry as they do in other countries where bird flu is rife..

Susie · #3 (**permalink**) 14-02-2008, 08:13 PM

Unfortunately the risk will always be there (albeit small) and although the usefulness of the Tamiflu is questionable the government has to take whatever precautionary measures are available.

Mr Mag00 · #4 (**permalink**) 14-02-2008, 08:15 PM

we have had cases of bird flu in Dorset in the past month

gfilmsuk · #5 (**permalink**) 15-02-2008, 08:06 AM

Mr Mag00'' we have had cases of bird flu in Dorset in the past month''

That's interesting. Were all the birds slaughtered? I can't even remember seeing a news report on TV. Not long ago experts were predicting more than 2million Americans would die and Europe would suffer a similar fate. The media attention was so great that I considered culling my small flock of chickens to do my bit.
I was raised on a farm for the first 17 years of my life and it was not uncommon to see a chicken with what my father described as 'chicken flu', the bird either recovered or died, but he certainly didn't cull the whole flock.
Maybe why the experts and the media are so quiet now is because they got it terribly wrong for whatever reason.

Kayleigh · #6 (**permalink**) 15-02-2008, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gfilmsuk

Mr Mag00'' we have had cases of bird flu in Dorset in the past month''

That's interesting. Were all the birds slaughtered? I can't even remember seeing a news report on TV. Not long ago experts were predicting more than 2million Americans would die and Europe would suffer a similar fate. The media attention was so great that I considered culling my small flock of chickens to do my bit.
I was raised on a farm for the first 17 years of my life and it was not uncommon to see a chicken with what my father described as 'chicken flu', the bird either recovered or died, but he certainly didn't cull the whole flock.
Maybe why the experts and the media are so quiet now is because they got it terribly wrong for whatever reason.

It depends on strain of chicken flu..If your birds had the H5N1.then he would have culled them all I suppose.

LoveT · #7 (**permalink**) 16-02-2008, 06:04 PM

Hi Gfilmsuk:

There was an outbreak of H5N1 in Dorset recently - it was among the swans down at Abbotsbury and thought to have been brought in by a wild bird. Up to a dozen swans died - I think. No birds were culled as a result (as far as I know), but restrictions were put in place.

I've not heard anything else on the local news for a while now, so am assuming that 'no news is good news'. However, I don't know if restrictions are still in place.

It was pretty big news at the time - certainly locally anyhow.

Thea

hank · #8 (**permalink**) 17-02-2008, 08:32 PM

This report is from 30th Jan....
Bird flu updates : Defra publish report into H5N1 outbreak at Abbotsbury

If anyone has any more upto date news I would be grateful as I'm due down there in April for a short holiday.

Mr Mag00 · #9 (**permalink**) 17-02-2008, 08:38 PM

we have blue tongue too now!

Ferret · #10 (**permalink**) 18-02-2008, 03:29 AM

Yes the threat of bird flu is still there and will continue to be for the foreseeable future.
There are hundreds of different strains of bird flu, just as there are with human flu, and they are all continuously mutating which is why we have to have flu vaccinations every year, unlike with say Polio which is also a virus but much more stable which means we need only on vaccination to protect us all our lives. If your father’s chickens had flu they could be treated, although the chances only one or two birds getting flu at a time is unlikely as all strains tend to be highly infectious they are more likely to have had some other avian infection.
Normally each type of flu stays within its own species or group of species or failing that to either Mammals or Birds, our cells being different enough that the specific flu virus cannot invade the cells of different groups or species. The problem with the H5N1 strain is that it can invade not only different species of birds but can under certain conditions make the jump to humans as well, it has not as far as I am aware yet made the next step which is the ability to spread from human to human but this would be a small step for it considering that it has already managed the species jump among birds.
Have the experts got it wrong, no I don’t think they have the threat is still there and it is not as if this hasn’t happened before the Spanish flu pandemic that swept the planet between March 1918 and June 1920 was caused by the H1N1 bird flue virus, at the time the world population was about ¼ of what it is today and international travel, apart from the troops retuning home after WW1, was a privilege of the rich, it succeed in killing between 50 and 100 million people. The figures make horrific reading 250,000 died in the UK. 400,000 in France, 675,000 in the US and 7 million in India the Fiji Islands lost 14% of its population in two weeks! The infection rate was running at 50% with a death rate between 2 and 20% as against 0.1% in normal flu on top of that the more healthy you were the more likely you where to die as it made your immune system cycle out of control therefore the healthier your immune system was the harder it attacked you! Its attack was swift you could be showing no symptoms in the morning be unable to walk by the evening and dead the next day, H1N5 kills in the same way!
If the government spend a few million on precautions that’s fine by me, and as for the press well as soon as the story cools of and nothing happens they soon loose interest.

almostnormal · #11 (**permalink**) 18-02-2008, 06:08 PM

Although H5N1 is a nasty wee beasty, simple health and safety (oh no...not h&s I hear you cry

) is all that's required to stop its transmission into humans. Wash your hands after you've been out, try and refrain from poking dead birds with your bare hands, and if you have to, for whatever reason, handle a dead one, wear a face mask and latex gloves. These should then be disposed of in a biological waste disposal bin. I'm having trouble thinking of a reason to handle dead birds though, unless you're a vet. If you find a dead bird (or group of dead birds), there's a number to ring on the DEFRA website.

Most cases of H5N1, despite what the papers might say, are from within domestic fowl confines, and then passed out into the wild bird population through poor human hygeine. Not all birds that contract it die, and its crossover to humans is limited, even though it does happen.

If we continue to house unnaturally high numbers of domestic fowl in barns in very close proximity avian flu will continue to be a potential issue, although the papers do sensationalise and exaggerate its risks.

The pandemic was caused by a mutated and hybridised virus, not a straight bird flu. Although its possible that H5N1 could do this, its highly unlikely to do so.

Highland Damsel · #12 (**permalink**) 18-02-2008, 11:06 PM

i'm inclined to agree with the last two posts, bird flu is still a threat, i have suspected for some time that sensationalist media has been deliberately toned down to prevent panic, just because it's not in the news doesn't mean it's gone away. I was at a conference on Phytophthora ramorum/kernoviae last week, this is a serious threat to a whole heap of things, but very few people knew much about it and it's not in the news, but it's still there.