Peak Oil

[bigdave60dog]

What do think about the Peak Oil Theory?

[eeyore]

Originally Posted by bigdave60dog

What do think about the Peak Oil Theory?

depends what you mean

the concept of peak oil - ie that there will eventually come a point at which demand outstrips supply and price will then increase sharply , is a given for any resource of which their is a finite supply.

so the question is not so much if it will happen as when - and that depends on both the rate of growth of demand, and also on the extent to which new supplies are found and brought on line.

estimates vary widely from 13 years out to 100 or so - with a few claiming that the peak has already been reached.

[bigdave60dog]

Originally Posted by eeyore

depends what you mean

the concept of peak oil - ie that there will eventually come a point at which demand outstrips supply and price will then increase sharply , is a given for any resource of which their is a finite supply.

so the question is not so much if it will happen as when - and that depends on both the rate of growth of demand, and also on the extent to which new supplies are found and brought on line.

estimates vary widely from 13 years out to 100 or so - with a few claiming that the peak has already been reached.

Sorry I was not aware that this was not being flagged up in more arenas.
The concept is 1. there is no more oil to be discovered. We know where all oil deposits are now. 2. Oil production reached it`s peak a few years ago and is now falling as oil gets more difficult to extract. 3. As developing countries increase their demands on the ever dwindling supplies (which is happening right now and is set spiral dramatically in the next 4 or five years) the demand will so much exceed supply that oil will become much too expensive to be used as the main power source that it is currently.
There are some who believe that were we not in a world depession we would already be feeling the effects of this now.
There is also a peak water theory that says that as the world warms up (It is warming up either by the hand of man or otherwise) the arrid areas of the earth will increase but will continue to be populated soon etc.
I live in The Northern Isles where we seem to be much more energy aware than some other areas who are perehaps less at the mercy of the elements.
Dave

[Hobjob]

When I was a lad oil was going to run out in the 80s.

At the moment the prediction for running out is rather larger than
it used to be.

I suspect it will be a problem for my Granchildren - hopefully we will
have fusion and easy storage of electricity by the; if not it will be
WW III.

[Meta menardi]

I fear we will be fighting for water before oil, in global terms. I am not sure that some Afrcan wars are not part of it already.

[Hobjob]

Originally Posted by Meta menardi

I fear we will be fighting for water before oil, in global terms. I am not sure that some Afrcan wars are not part of it already.

Too True.

There is trouble brewing over the use of water in the upper reaches of the Niles. Colonial agreement (?1929) for Sudan and Egypt to take 90%, now being seriously challenged by the likes of Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, Ethiopia etc..

I read about it on Aljaseera which is a nice site for hearing about alternative points of view

Sudan and Egypt of course being such democratic countries ......

[bigdave60dog]

I agee that Al Jazeera is a definately good site to find points of view from others.
For peak Oil I just "Google in" Peak oil and follow the threads.
Transition towns is another good trigger for material on this.
I you follow the logic of these arguments then do a little "digging around" you will turn up some pretty disturbing stuff. Most of which can be backed by serious research.
I am lifelong environmentalist and am only just becoming aware of this stuff which is why I asked the question.
Dave

[Bumblebeebob]

Originally Posted by Meta menardi

I fear we will be fighting for water before oil, in global terms. I am not sure that some Afrcan wars are not part of it already.

And not only Africa, some say USA reached peak water consumption in 1970!

The US hit peak water in 1970 | GDS Publishing

Some Canadians are worried the USA will invade them for water.

[Bumblebeebob]

Originally Posted by bigdave60dog

I agee that Al Jazeera is a definately good site to find points of view from others.
For peak Oil I just "Google in" Peak oil and follow the threads.
Transition towns is another good trigger for material on this.
I you follow the logic of these arguments then do a little "digging around" you will turn up some pretty disturbing stuff. Most of which can be backed by serious research.
I am lifelong environmentalist and am only just becoming aware of this stuff which is why I asked the question.
Dave

Richard Heinberg & the Post Carbon Institute is a good source of info on Peak oil.

Post Carbon Institute | Leading the transition to a resilient world