Peak Oil v Alternative Sources of Energy

[air]

Whether we are running out of oil and what might happen if we do- Is there a balance between oil demand and supply? Are we running out of the oil and should we consider asap other sources of energy such as wind, solar .etc...?

[agrumpycow]

Originally Posted by air

Whether we are running out of oil and what might happen if we do- Is there a balance between oil demand and supply? Are we running out of the oil and should we consider asap other sources of energy such as wind, solar .etc...?

Oil is a non-renewable fuel source and as far as I am aware no one is sure exactly how much is left in the reserves annd how long it will last. I think more passive sources of energy such as those you mentioned is the way forward not only because they are renewable but because of the carbon emissions from usin oil.

[Dark_One]

Finite sources of energy such as oil, gas and coal will ineveitably run out. Before running out, the costs of extraction will cause prices to rocket - much as we're starting to see now. Whether that is a constraint on the resource or just demand outstripping supply .... who knows.

The only sane answer to energy needs is to use renewables - geothermal, wind, hydro and solar.
However current technology will only be able to provide a fraction of our current energy "requirement" in the "modern" world so we'd better learn to reduce our requirement very quickly.

On another note - this winter could see very high electricity prices as about half the UK nuclear power plants are off-line (10% of our generation capacity)

Just hope the Russians don't switch off the gas pipeline again ......

[Hobjob]

Originally Posted by air

Whether we are running out of oil and what might happen if we do- Is there a balance between oil demand and supply? Are we running out of the oil and should we consider asap other sources of energy such as wind, solar .etc...?

Curious thing about our running out of oil, is that when I was a mere lad in the late 50's I was taught that we would run out it 20 years - that was also euphoria time about nuclear electricity.

Now we have enough, the pundits claim, for about 40 years, and that is at a massively increased usage that in the 50s.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we shouldn't try and reduce usage, use renewables etc etc - just this old dog has heard it all before and I still remember the story of red riding hood. I fear for my descendants though.

[Pagan_Dave]

I think the $98 a barrel oil price and the predicted shortfall in oil reserves this winter in the US should tell us something! I would expect a rocky road economically and socially in the future as the gap between supply and demand WILL get bigger; also to note is that the reserves in the giant oil fields in Saudi Arabia are now apparently 43% depleted (news sources).

I think some very harsh lifestyle changes will need to be made by all of us for the future - mainly by our next generations, with adapting to life without oil or the scarcity of it; the survivers won't necessarily be the strongest or the most intelligent - it will be the ones that will be able to adapt to hard lifestyle changes.

Buy a diesel car and get it converted to veggie oil - that would be a good start and save you loads of money too.

Originally Posted by air

Whether we are running out of oil and what might happen if we do- Is there a balance between oil demand and supply? Are we running out of the oil and should we consider asap other sources of energy such as wind, solar .etc...?

[inholms]

I think it is important to understand that Solar and wind in a domestic situation have a very limited role to play. Last year I installed the best solar system there is. Here are the facts; on a hot summers day with clear skys you get unlimited hot water, when you don't need it. In the winter, even on a cloudless day, you don't get hot water (maybe a little warm), when you do need it. The whole thing is round the wrong way!

By promoting domestic solar on sites like this you are helping to support a huge con.

[Dark_One]

Originally Posted by inholms

By promoting domestic solar on sites like this you are helping to support a huge con.

I completely disagree - home solar energy is not a con at all, you just need to understand the limitations.

The bottom line is that the incident energy from the sun where you live is much less in the Winter than in the Summer .... obviously.

It is therefore dificult to supply all your energy needs all year round just by using solar PV and solar water heating - you need energy from the sun which has been stored over Summer periods. A simple way that might work is to use wood from fast growing managed resources like Short Rotation Coppiced woods.

Wind and wave energy as a national resource is much more reliable over the Winter periods, given the right balance of locations, which would also help bridge the winter energy deficit.
Geothermal is another great resource that can be used locally or on a larger scale.

[inholms]

It's a con, your argument is flawed. You are talking about things which may have a role to play in the future. I'm talking about now, reality, and it's a con.


The best thing which needs to be developed is drilling half a kilometer down and make a bore hole. You pump cold water in and hot water out. The problem at present is the cost of the drilling. Anyone want to join me to find a cheaper way?

[Dark_One]

Originally Posted by inholms

It's a con, your argument is flawed. You are talking about things which may have a role to play in the future. I'm talking about now, reality, and it's a con.


The best thing which needs to be developed is drilling half a kilometer down and make a bore hole. You pump cold water in and hot water out. The problem at present is the cost of the drilling. Anyone want to join me to find a cheaper way?

If you are going to make such assertions, you really do need to back them up with some facts or at the very least some sort of argument.

It is a proven fact that Solar PV and Solar Water Heating can reduce your current energy bills and reduce your reliance on fossil fuels - the whole year round.

Please explain how this is a "con".

[inholms]

Oh dear Oh dear, You really have been taken in! As I explained, the problem is that you get the energy when you don't want it. What is needed for such systems is an efficient means of storing that energy for when you do need it. I am speaking from experience and I can confirm that even having the best system, facing east to west, unrestricted, during October to April, this system makes no contribution to my heating bills.
I'm not saying it makes no contribution, as in the summer we in effect get 'free heating' but is it? It cost £9,000 to have it installed. It saves me £200 a year. Therfore the pay back period is 45 years!

I wish it was cheaper, but the problem is 'men in suits' have cashed in on this, supported by people like you and have turned some basic science into........a con.

[agrumpycow]

I don't know a huge amount but what about the systems that plough the excess energy produced during the summer months back into the mains? Wouldn't that go somewhere to balance out the energy you need to take from the main supply during the winter months?

[Buzzy]

It's obvious something needs to be done and alternative powers do need to be developed further to make them more cost effective, in every way. I would be happy to put up a small domestic wind turbine, dig for geothermals, and have a water mill, all supplementing my electricity supply,
but I don't have the money for that, and I'm not sure what the enviromental impact is from these alternatives.
The problem for me is finding the information on all these as factual bits of evidence. I don't have access to a good library and am hopeless on the computer. What would help is for easy access (and wording) to correct information on all these alternatives and the comparisons with each other and our fossil fuel usages.
A site that gives all information ina totally unbiased way (just informative) would make it better for any numpty (me) to find and learn.

[Dark_One]

Originally Posted by inholms

Oh dear Oh dear, You really have been taken in!

/snip

Originally Posted by inholms

...... the problem is 'men in suits' have cashed in on this, supported by people like you and have turned some basic science into........a con.

I have a degree in Physics and have just finished studying the OU course T206 "Energy for a sustainable future" as part of an Environmental Sciences degree, so I am reasonably confident that I haven't been conned by any "men in suits" - more like I believe the opinions of the men with beards and sandals and the science behind sustainable energy.

On another note - to Buzzy, I find that Wikipedia is a great source to start with. It's usually pretty well written and mostly objective and factual - occasionally it can be inaccurate or opinionated, but that gets fixed reasonably quickly.
Some of the best of it are the links to research papers.

Solar PV :
Photovoltaics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Solar Hot Water :
Solar hot water - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Geothermal Heating :
Geothermal heating - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Geothermal Power :
Geothermal power - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Wind Power :
Wind power - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Tidal Power :
Tidal power - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Wave Power :
Wave power - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Wood (Coppicing) :
Coppicing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

just a few for starters.

[Purplepixii]

Originally Posted by inholms

I am speaking from experience and I can confirm that even having the best system, facing east to west, unrestricted, during October to April, this system makes no contribution to my heating bills.

Originally Posted by inholms

I'm not saying it makes no contribution, as in the summer we in effect get 'free heating' but is it?

Seems like someone needs to get their facts straight...

Originally Posted by inholms

I wish it was cheaper, but the problem is 'men in suits' have cashed in on this, supported by people like you

Supported by the people who paid for it more like!

Renewable energy is the future - whether we've been told 50 years ago or 500 years ago that natural resources will run out in the very near future the fact is that it will. Nothing lasts forever. The systems in place now may not hold all the answers but they will in time.

Humans are great at destroying this great planet they call earth

[Laura J]

We will run out of the non-renewables.....
And we are far too slow at getting the renewables up and running - mostly to do with government paper work and lacking agendas it seems! Id love to say renewables will power our futures ...alas...tis a dream...

On another note...at least one coal fire power station is built in China every week atm apparently...YIKES....

It sickens me that WE Will inevitably go Nuclear.....The issue of where to put the waste is still frankly scary!
So keep your wits about you...and challenge everything.... if its gonna happen lets try and force those at the top to get it right this time!
Theyve had plenty of mistakes to learn from surely!

[inholms]

Good at last some balanced comments.

I should like to make the folowing comments as I can prove that they actully do make a major contribution to energy saving and they are cost effective.
I moved into a detached large timber framed cottage a few years ago, and although it had been fully renovated it was cold and very expensive to heat. In the last two years, I have has insulating foam pumped into every available wall space and have fitted thick velvet drapes over the external doors and many of the internal doors to keep the heat in each room. This cost about £800.00. The effect is amazing. Every room in the house is now warm and we are using less oil! I calculate the 'claw back' time to be 14 months. If we all did this, I think this would make a major contribution to energy saving.

Regarding my comments on solar heating. Lets just be clear. In the right country (like Greece, Spain etc) it really works and should be the main source of domestic heating. The problem is it's not suitable for the UK as we don't get the right type of sun!

[Buzzy]

Thankyou DarkOne for the site info I'll have a look soon.

Buzz

[Sherlock]

Hi. I medically retired after 27 years of full time servicing of solar heating installations about 2 years ago. Please note - servicing not installing. My opinion is that if you can build, install and maintain a system yourself, then it will save the burning of fossil fuels and you may get a return on your money. You may be able to build and fit a water heating system for £1,000. If you use discarded materials then the manufacturing pollution that is produced is lower. If you have to pay someone to do all the work for you then it is doubtful that you will see a return on your savings. Current systems cost £3,000 plus. At some point in time there maybe more fuel saved than expended in manufacture. When you add servicing trips by an engineer including any breakdowns there can be pollution caused in the running of a solar water heating system. I used secondhand panels where new owners did not want the panels on my system. IE 20 vacuum tubes and 17 square metres of flat plate collectors that are now 28 years old. It is a great feeling to have you hot water heated by the sun. The choice to have solar water heating is yours.

inholm hi - what system do you have vaccum or flat plate, size and make of panels, cylinder etc if your solar system that cost 9K was for water heating

[inholms]

Hello Sherlock,

I generally agree with your comments, many thanks for your contribution. I'm using 40 vacuum tubes. The whole kit was purchased from Navitron in Wales. It is true that the cost is in the installation. I think the double glazing cowboys have moved into this area, this is a realy pity. I do have to come clean here and say that my system did not cost £9,000 as I did some of the work myself with a guy who runs a local installation company who charges a reasonable rate. However, I did have cowboys come round here to quote and they did quote up to £9,000 for the same system. I make the point again. I have the best system, in the best location, installed by an expert and it does not work as expected or promoted by the cowboys.

I also have concerns about the health & safety. There were a few (not many) days this year when we have a full tank of hot water by 13.00 after that we did not need any more heating. So how do you turn it off? What happens if there is an emergency? Once it is running there is no off default. I think there should be a remote blind which can be rolled down over the tubes. I would be interested in your comments.

Inholms

[Dark_One]

"it does not work as expected or promoted by the cowboys"

Inholms - you're going to have to tell us exactly what these cowboys told you and exactly how your system does not match with their claims.

In the Winter in the UK, you won't get a full tank of hot water with any solar system unless you've paid extreme amounts of money. What you will get with most systems is an increase in temperature in the tank by a several degrees - which means you burn less gas to heat the water up to full temperature.

2 key numbers are worth considering :
EROEI = Energy Returned on Energy Invested
Payback time.

An ideal system will deliver far more energy out in a useful form than it took to create, and similarly, the cost of the energy output will allow you to break even in as short a time as possible.

However .... !!
You pay extra for convenience - extra energy and cost in production, or extra energy and cost in fuel to provide the energy.
By convenience I mean delivering energy at times when renewables are sparse i.e. at night or in winter.

If you designed a solar water system to provide you with a full tank of hot water each day in Winter, it would be incredibly expensive and would also significantly over achieve in summer months - perhaps that is what Inholms has done ? You would want a modular system say with 3 seperate sections. You would use only 1 in Summer, 2 in Autumn and Spring and all 3 in Winter.

Other ways of using renewables 24 by 7 all year round would have to include storage - short term (within 24 hours) and long term (over 6 months).
There is a project somewhere in the US where they built a small village over a large storage tank which contains a gel like substance. They pump heat into the tank in the Summer (cooling their houses) and pump heat out of the tank nin Winter (heating their hosues). This is a rather extreme installation (got to love Americans !!!) but over its lifetime will probably save them a small fortune.

In terms of the whole UK, the only way to achieve a significant percentage of our energy usage from renewables requires the following - in order of importance (IMO) :
1) reduce the amount we use
2) tidal power at several key locations all round the UK (to balance out low tide in one place with high tide in another)
3) Wind farms all round the UK (less reliable than tidal power, but enough installations in diverse locations would help)
4) Wave Power
5) micro generation at home - solar water, solar Pv and small wind turbines

Let me know what you think :-)

[eeyore]

as we are all agreed that oil is shortly going to run out - there is another impact which is largely overlooked.

no oil doesnt just mean no petrol , it also means no plastic or any of the other petroleum derivatives - take a look arround you and imagine your home without the plastic - big changes ahead (yes I know you can make plastic from vegetable sources but how are we goin to find the land area to do that and grow fuel, and grow food ??)

can you imagine a computer made soley from metal and wood for a start ??

[Rich_]

Good observation, and as you say has not really been mentioned. However, none of these oil byproducts are essential for survival by any means, our ancestors proved that. Why don't we just accept that these things will come to an end one day and we will have to learn to live as they did? I see a mad Max scenario in future though.

[Dark_One]

I suspect there is enough plastic out there which can be recycled in some way or other to sustain our plastic needs in the near future, but it will mean the more traditional materials - wood, pottery, glass and metal will come back into fashion :-)

Although metals are already starting to be in short supply.
Scrap metal merchants are raking it in - as are the metal thieves we keep hearing about !!