"Children will never again see snow"

[Dorts]

Climate expert Dr David Viner, who until recently worked at Britain’s world-renowned Climatic Research Unit at the 'famed' University of East Anglia, in 2000 in the Independent made the expert prediction that snow would soon become a “rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

When asked again a few days ago if he still stuck by his prediction he said Yes". ‘We’ve had three weeks of relatively cold weather, and that doesn’t change anything. ‘This winter is just a little cooler than average, and I still think that snow will become an increasingly rare event.’

Following last years 'coldest and snowiest winter for decades', and the forcast of much more severe weather yet to come, I wonder what planet these so-called experts are on. I think Dr. Viner must have his head firmly in the snow.
Dorts.

[Paul mabbott]

It is probably true - two or three weather events can't mask changes in the climate. Climatologists talk in decades, centuries or longer whereas most people have difficulty in remembering the weather a month or a year ago .....

[bigdave60dog]

He`s a climatologist. I am not.
He is at a university, I went to one. I know the amount of information that he will have at his fingertips. It is unbelievably larger that you or I will have at our fingertips .
I would much rather listen to him because I know here he is coming from..
Dave

[Dorts]

Originally Posted by Paul mabbott

It is probably true - two or three weather events can't mask changes in the climate. Climatologists talk in decades, centuries or longer whereas most people have difficulty in remembering the weather a month or a year ago .....

I have no difficulty remembering the winters of 1947 or 1963 or of last year.
We have experienced a warming of 0.6 to 0.7 degrees C, or thereabouts, over the last century or so.
Long-range climate predictions are done using the same computors and the same computor models as those used to do our weather forcasting. They can't get that right more than a couple of days ahead so how on earth would anyone think that they can predict the climate hundreds of years ahead.

The climate will always change, trouble is Paul that when an 'expert' tells us that snow is going to be a thing of the past, and then we get two years of heavy snow and severe temperatures, it just makes such people open to ridicule. If he was to say that our climate is warming but that it does not mean that we won't occasionally get the odd cold winter, I might take some notice of the man.

We are constantly being told that 'weather' is not 'climate' but when asked about these recent cold winters, the latest retort from these experts is that it is caused by global Warming. Hang on - 'weather is not climate'? What about the winters of 47 or 63 or 85 etc. were they not all caused by global Warming?

These experts need to keep themselves in this bounty of public money, that’s why Dr David “Nostradamus” Viner now has a plum job, funded by you and me, running a £10 million scheme at the British Council to raise awareness of global warming!! So he would say that wouldn't he?

We should know by now that it is irrelevant whether winters/summers get colder/warmer/wetter/drier there is a climate scientist out there who has that eventuality covered.

3 cold winters in a row and counting, when does weather become climate ?

Dorts.

[Cordaline]

Our climate does appear to be shifting.
The season's seem to get a little bit earlier each year!
eg:- I don't remember snow where I live in November before.
Even last years first fall in December was early.

Before last winters heavy fall, the last 'proper' snow down here was in the early 80's I think.
So it has been scarce for a long while other than the odd, short lived flurry here & there.

[Richard G.]

The problem with these scientists is they have no PR skills, why would they, they’re scientists after all.

However, if they are going to make headlining grabbing statements, they better get it right or they risk the Michael Fish effect and will have these ‘mistakes’ thrown back at them again and again. They really do need to articulate their position much more effectively if they want to be credible.

[Dorts]

Originally Posted by Richard G.

The problem with these scientists is they have no PR skills, why would they, they’re scientists after all.

However, if they are going to make headlining grabbing statements, they better get it right or they risk the Michael Fish effect and will have these ‘mistakes’ thrown back at them again and again. They really do need to articulate their position much more effectively if they want to be credible.

Well said Richard. The Michael Fish effect has let down many a well meaning 'expert'.
Dorts.

[pressld2]

Interestingly, in spite of what happened in the UK last January and is happening again now, 2010 is shaping up to be one of the warmest years on record. For the planet, that is, not for the UK. There's a reason why they call it Global Warming!

Dave P.

[dmbuild66]

The definition of an expert - Ex.... means a has-been and a spurt is a drip under pressure ((o: Paul Mabbots post and I quote "Climatologists talk in decades, centuries or longer" The whole trouble with that statement is the Climatologist in question will no longer be around in centuries or longer when the world laughs at what he has just repeated!! I'm with Dorts (O; I also work at a University and hear all this xexexexe all the time and yes some professors even admit to sexing up their press releases and papers to get some much needed publication..... Sometimes all that information at our finger-tips muddles the brain. Dave

[RoyW]

Originally Posted by Dorts

Following last years 'coldest and snowiest winter for decades', and the forcast of much more severe weather yet to come, I wonder what planet these so-called experts are on. I think Dr. Viner must have his head firmly in the snow.

Dr Viner (and other scientist who agree with him) may ultimately be shown to be wrong, but, as others have said, I have no doubt that he is basing his prediction on far more than a few years of data.

Originally Posted by Dorts

Long-range climate predictions are done using the same computors and the same computor models as those used to do our weather forcasting. They can't get that right more than a couple of days ahead so how on earth would anyone think that they can predict the climate hundreds of years ahead.

It's actually a lot easier to accurately predict general long range trends than it is to make the exact forecasts that people expect from the weather forecast. For example, I doubt that any betting shop would give me worthwhile odds if (at the start of the season) I wanted to bet that Manchester United and Arsenal would win enough football matches to both finish somewhere near the top of the Premiership - but they'd be happy to take my money if I wanted to predict the exact scores of their individual matches.

Originally Posted by Dorts

3 cold winters in a row and counting, when does weather become climate ?

3 cold winters in a row and counting - where do you get that from?
The 2009-10 winter was the coldest for quite a few years, but the 2008-9 winter was warmer than the average in northern Europe according to Met Office figures (although colder than the ones we had got used to), and the winter of 2007-8 was warmer than 2008-9.
This winter has barely started yet, so although it is cold at the moment it is certainly not possible to say for certain that it will remain cold (even though cold weather is predicted) - for all we know the latter part of the winter could end up far warmer than average.



The main problem that scientists working with statistics have is that most people don't (or don't want to) understand that statistical analysis allows for occasional results that go against the trend.
There have always been occasional winters that are colder than the normal, and there no doubt always will be. The weather that we have this winter already seems bad compared to recent years - but will it be as bad as the 1962-63 winter apparently was? I'm guessing that it won't be, but perhaps it would have been if the climate wasn't slightly warmer now than it was back then? We'll never know.