Benefits of a Warmer Climate

[Wild-Woman]

After seeing Cordless Dave's superb shot of a Dartford Warbler in the gallery, it got me thinking about other species of birds that will benefit from a change in the British winter. I understand that DW's suffer bad declines in harsh winters so I'm guessing that their numbers may increase or at least hold fast.
I'd like to know what the birders think will happen,what species will we see more of and what species will gain a foothold here because of climate change.
BTW-I do realise, however, that many species used to colder, wetter climes will sadly not benefit but I'm trying to think positive thoughts about the outcome in the future,not doom and gloom.

Julie

[RobSutton]

I think Little Egrets probably already have done and perhaps Cetti's Warbler too. Perhaps we also need to bear in mind that one possible senario of global warming is that we lose the influence of the North Atlantic Drift/Gulf Stream and end up with a climate similar to Nova Scotia. I'm not sure of the relative likelihood of this as a possibility or of the mechanics of it but the consequences of that could be even worse.

Closer to home we're getting a lot more butterflies up in the Dales because of recent warmer summers. Up here at Malham Tarn we had our first ever Speckled Wood last year and Comma as well and there are a number of other species which have colonised over the last 10 years or so.

[John]

As Rob has said, Little Egrets are rapidly becoming established with large colonies in a few places and also a few birds spread as far north as Scotland.

Staying with the family Cattle and Great White Egrets are becoming more and more common. Glossy Ibis are being seen and so are Black-winged Stilts. Hoopoe's seem to be visiting us more often these days (always a pleasure to see these birds).

The downside to this global warming might not be keeping us warm for too long though due to the ice melting and breaking up the gulf stream. If that happens we could be thrust into another ice age here in the UK with catastrophic results to both us and our wildlife.

John

[Wild-Woman]

Originally Posted by John

As Rob has said, Little Egrets are rapidly becoming established with large colonies in a few places and also a few birds spread as far north as Scotland.

Staying with the family Cattle and Great White Egrets are becoming more and more common. Glossy Ibis are being seen and so are Black-winged Stilts. Hoopoe's seem to be visiting us more often these days (always a pleasure to see these birds).

The downside to this global warming might not be keeping us warm for too long though due to the ice melting and breaking up the gulf stream. If that happens we could be thrust into another ice age here in the UK with catastrophic results to both us and our wildlife.

John

We have good settlements of egrets in Kent. They seem very happy amongst our local herons and rooks. I know we've had storks visit but I wondered whether they may settle down here one day.
The population of ring necked Parakeet(that I understand were originally escapees), have a stronghold, especially in the south of London and Kent. I've seen them as far out as Sevenoaks.

Oh well if we get another ice-age, we might get penguins!

[Earth Hart]

Originally Posted by John

The downside to this global warming might not be keeping us warm for too long though due to the ice melting and breaking up the gulf stream. If that happens we could be thrust into another ice age here in the UK with catastrophic results to both us and our wildlife.

John

The way most people look on Global Warming & Climate Change, I hope & pray that the Gulf Stream does fail, so they will see what a mess they're in Sadly I don't think I'll be around when the Ice Age hits us but I'll have some fun cross-country skiing before it really bites.

NASA has recently published the volume of ice loss of the Greenland Ice Shelf, 41 cubic miles per year over the last 3 years as to 17cubic miles in 1983. that's without the sea ice melt.

Bring it on

[nightshade]

This nasty warm weather is allowing disease to flourish and kill birds,insects are thin on the ground give me a return to "normal"

[aeshna5]

But what is normal? Our climate has always changed?

Dartford Warblers are responding well with birds recently colonising Suffolk + South Wales away from southern heaths- though fires in hotter, drier summers may be a problem, like the devasting one at Thursley this year. Blackcaps are now wintering here (mainly from central Europe) in increasing numbers, there have been 3 breeding attempts by Bee-eaters in recent years (sadly only 1 successful) + more southern species such as the various egrets are likely to follow.

On debit side most likely losers will be montane species such as Ptarmigan, Dotterel + Snow Bunting + with reduction in Sand Eel numbers (overfishing/water warming) many of our internationally important seabirds may decline.

Certainly many insects are responding to warmer climate with range expansion + quite a few new colonists in recent years such as Small Red-eyed Damselfly, Lesser Emperor + Sickle-bearing Cricket to name three!

[Earth Hart]

Originally Posted by nightshade

This nasty warm weather is allowing disease to flourish and kill birds,insects are thin on the ground give me a return to "normal"

Sadly, most people think this warm weather's great. Just goes to show how unaware people are of the Land.
What the land needs is a 3-4 week freeze up, to kill off the bad bugs & diseases, sure, others will suffer but the Land is crying out for it. People these days are just too soft, a bit of frost & they complain it's too cold. For me, bring on a Hard winter, I can live in hope.

[John D]

Originally Posted by nightshade

This nasty warm weather is allowing disease to flourish and kill birds,insects are thin on the ground give me a return to "normal"

Life on earth could never have been said to be 'normal'. From the very beginning there has been continual change. Some phases lasting longer than others.
John D

[Imaginos]

Originally Posted by aeshna5

Certainly many insects are responding to warmer climate with range expansion + quite a few new colonists in recent years such as Small Red-eyed Damselfly, Lesser Emperor + Sickle-bearing Cricket to name three!

We are also losing quite a few insects-especially the more northern species. Also the warm winters is having a detrimental effect on overwintering insects-especially those that overwinter as eggs as there is a lot more fungal infection in warm winters.

[speckled wood]

Originally Posted by John D

Life on earth could never have been said to be 'normal'. From the very beginning there has been continual change. Some phases lasting longer than others.
John D

The critical thing though is not the "change" itself but whether the reasons for the recent changes are the same reasons for previous changes or whether human caused pollution is the or a significant reason.

[aeshna5]

I realise that as well as gaining new species, others are in decline or even disappearing altogether. From a climate point of view it is most likely that nothern species with their most southerly range here will be most adversely affected. However general declines in insect abundance are also affected by other factors- most notably landuse factor changes in recent decades- particularly agricuture.

I'm certainly not complacent about climate change + try to do my bit to be as environmentally sound as possible (but always room to improve) but species have always been in flux with winners + losers. At the moment more bird species are stable/increasing than in decline; most of latter group being farmland birds (some turn around in some species with agri-environment schemes), specialist woodland species (such as Willow Tit, Lesser S. Woodpecker) + some long-distance migrants such as Spotted Flycatcher (where the problem is an international one).

What is important, as naturalists, is recording species so that we can monitor how different species are faring over time.

[Imaginos]

I'm in full agreement aeshna5, climate change is not the single driver in these situations. There are several major causes, including climate change, agricultural intensification, habitat loss, increased pollution etc. etc.

We may see new species coming in from the south, but we will also see species departing from the north. Another facet is that some of our southern species need drier conditions which our maritime climate doesn't provide very well-especially in winter and it is the case that the trend in moth species overwintering as an egg is downwards. An example-the Garden Tiger declined by 89% between 1968-2002 and it seems that the more rapid declines year-on-year are associated with wet winters and warm springs.

There has been quite a lot of research recently on population patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is a large scale climate pattern in the Atlantic basin. The Garden Tiger is one species who's population trends are strongly correlated with the NAO, this is also true of mosquitoes among others. The thing is the NAO is a purely climatic feature indicating that climate change is likely to one of the more important factors.

[aeshna5]

Imaginos, I used to see Tiger Moths regularly as a youngster, though my gardening father was less pleased to see woolly bears in the garden + both moth + caterpillar are both such charismatic critters which I now miss as I don't see them these days. I haven't read it yet, but I believe there's an article on the decline of this species in the new Atropos magazine that's come out- only had time to admire photos of migrants so far!

[Earth Hart]

It's all very well, talking about what species will benefit or not, the real question is, will we, Homo sapiens, benefit? My Grandchildren could see major food shortages when they are in their 30s, I might not be around but I feel for them & the future. Don't forget, We are an animal species also.

[John D]

Originally Posted by speckled wood

The critical thing though is not the "change" itself but whether the reasons for the recent changes are the same reasons for previous changes or whether human caused pollution is the or a significant reason.

The state of Earth has been fluid since the very beginning. It will continue to be so. The changes that we are being made aware of now, are the ones that 'experts' have recognised. If they are correct then the reason for that change is without doubt 'pollution'.
That being the case 'mankind' can contribute to a 'slow down' in that change. Many contributing factors have already been debated on this 'site'. However the change associated with 'global warming' is only one change that is taking place. Natural changes will continue to occur. Some will be relatively short term and low key in nature others will be more dynamic and take longer to evolve. The timespan, as in earlier years is unknown.
Just like the universe continues to change so will planet Earth including 'mankind'. Whether we like it or not we live in a 'state of continual change'.
Somethings we may be able to control, in others the 'power of nature' will be too strong.
Earthquakes, hurricanes and tsunamis etc are some of the known catastrophies that we can't control. Such is the 'power of nature'.
We therefore must do what we can within our powers to slow down changes which are attributable to mankind such as pollution etc in order to preserve what we have for as long as possible.
John D