Benefits of a Warmer Climate

[speckled wood]

Originally Posted by John D

Life on earth could never have been said to be 'normal'. From the very beginning there has been continual change. Some phases lasting longer than others.
John D

The critical thing though is not the "change" itself but whether the reasons for the recent changes are the same reasons for previous changes or whether human caused pollution is the or a significant reason.

[aeshna5]

I realise that as well as gaining new species, others are in decline or even disappearing altogether. From a climate point of view it is most likely that nothern species with their most southerly range here will be most adversely affected. However general declines in insect abundance are also affected by other factors- most notably landuse factor changes in recent decades- particularly agricuture.

I'm certainly not complacent about climate change + try to do my bit to be as environmentally sound as possible (but always room to improve) but species have always been in flux with winners + losers. At the moment more bird species are stable/increasing than in decline; most of latter group being farmland birds (some turn around in some species with agri-environment schemes), specialist woodland species (such as Willow Tit, Lesser S. Woodpecker) + some long-distance migrants such as Spotted Flycatcher (where the problem is an international one).

What is important, as naturalists, is recording species so that we can monitor how different species are faring over time.

[Imaginos]

I'm in full agreement aeshna5, climate change is not the single driver in these situations. There are several major causes, including climate change, agricultural intensification, habitat loss, increased pollution etc. etc.

We may see new species coming in from the south, but we will also see species departing from the north. Another facet is that some of our southern species need drier conditions which our maritime climate doesn't provide very well-especially in winter and it is the case that the trend in moth species overwintering as an egg is downwards. An example-the Garden Tiger declined by 89% between 1968-2002 and it seems that the more rapid declines year-on-year are associated with wet winters and warm springs.

There has been quite a lot of research recently on population patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is a large scale climate pattern in the Atlantic basin. The Garden Tiger is one species who's population trends are strongly correlated with the NAO, this is also true of mosquitoes among others. The thing is the NAO is a purely climatic feature indicating that climate change is likely to one of the more important factors.

[aeshna5]

Imaginos, I used to see Tiger Moths regularly as a youngster, though my gardening father was less pleased to see woolly bears in the garden + both moth + caterpillar are both such charismatic critters which I now miss as I don't see them these days. I haven't read it yet, but I believe there's an article on the decline of this species in the new Atropos magazine that's come out- only had time to admire photos of migrants so far!

[Earth Hart]

It's all very well, talking about what species will benefit or not, the real question is, will we, Homo sapiens, benefit? My Grandchildren could see major food shortages when they are in their 30s, I might not be around but I feel for them & the future. Don't forget, We are an animal species also.

[John D]

Originally Posted by speckled wood

The critical thing though is not the "change" itself but whether the reasons for the recent changes are the same reasons for previous changes or whether human caused pollution is the or a significant reason.

The state of Earth has been fluid since the very beginning. It will continue to be so. The changes that we are being made aware of now, are the ones that 'experts' have recognised. If they are correct then the reason for that change is without doubt 'pollution'.
That being the case 'mankind' can contribute to a 'slow down' in that change. Many contributing factors have already been debated on this 'site'. However the change associated with 'global warming' is only one change that is taking place. Natural changes will continue to occur. Some will be relatively short term and low key in nature others will be more dynamic and take longer to evolve. The timespan, as in earlier years is unknown.
Just like the universe continues to change so will planet Earth including 'mankind'. Whether we like it or not we live in a 'state of continual change'.
Somethings we may be able to control, in others the 'power of nature' will be too strong.
Earthquakes, hurricanes and tsunamis etc are some of the known catastrophies that we can't control. Such is the 'power of nature'.
We therefore must do what we can within our powers to slow down changes which are attributable to mankind such as pollution etc in order to preserve what we have for as long as possible.
John D