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Old 13-02-2008, 12:41 AM
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Cool Solar Activity Causing Climate Change

IBDeditorials.com: Editorials, Political Cartoons, and Polls from Investor's Business Daily -- The Sun Also Sets

Climate Change: Not every scientist is part of Al Gore's mythical "consensus." Scientists worried about a new ice age seek funding to better observe something bigger than your SUV — the sun.

Back in 1991, before Al Gore first shouted that the Earth was in the balance, the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study using data that went back centuries that showed that global temperatures closely tracked solar cycles.

To many, those data were convincing. Now, Canadian scientists are seeking additional funding for more and better "eyes" with which to observe our sun, which has a bigger impact on Earth's climate than all the tailpipes and smokestacks on our planet combined.

And they're worried about global cooling, not warming.

Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity.

Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.

Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle.

This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers during that period led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.

Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.

Tapping oversees the operation of a 60-year-old radio telescope that he calls a "stethoscope for the sun." But he and his colleagues need better equipment.

In Canada, where radio-telescopic monitoring of the sun has been conducted since the end of World War II, a new instrument, the next-generation solar flux monitor, could measure the sun's emissions more rapidly and accurately.

As we have noted many times, perhaps the biggest impact on the Earth's climate over time has been the sun.

For instance, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar Research in Germany report the sun has been burning more brightly over the last 60 years, accounting for the 1 degree Celsius increase in Earth's temperature over the last 100 years.

R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says that "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales."

Rather, he says, "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."

Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."

"Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely will again," Patterson says. "If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had."

In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov made some waves — and not a few enemies in the global warming "community" — by predicting that the sun would reach a peak of activity about three years from now, to be accompanied by "dramatic changes" in temperatures.

A Hoover Institution Study a few years back examined historical data and came to a similar conclusion.

"The effects of solar activity and volcanoes are impossible to miss. Temperatures fluctuated exactly as expected, and the pattern was so clear that, statistically, the odds of the correlation existing by chance were one in 100," according to Hoover fellow Bruce Berkowitz.

The study says that "try as we might, we simply could not find any relationship between industrial activity, energy consumption and changes in global temperatures."

The study concludes that if you shut down all the world's power plants and factories, "there would not be much effect on temperatures."

But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem. It is the sun, not the Earth, that's hanging in the balance.
__________________________________________________ _

The Coming Global Cooling

The Coming Global Cooling by Selwyn Duke


While global warming is the current the-sky-is-falling mantra, many scientists are warning of an impending cooling trend.

Follow this link to the original source: "The Sun Also Sets"

When I was a lad in primary school, we were warned of climate change. It was a tad scary, too, as the prospect of becoming an icicle in a frozen wasteland wasn't very appealing. Hey, we wanted to be able to go outside and sometimes play with balls not made out of snow.

Yes, it was said another ice age might be nigh. �

This isn't surprising. It was the early 1970s and temperatures had been dropping for the previous 30 years or so. �

That's right, dropping.

This is one of the problems with "living in the moment." While we often place great emphasis on it, it can be perilous when evaluating phenomena. It's much like a frog experiencing his first winter and thinking the days of verdant meadows are gone forever. Perhaps he is surprised when the flowers bloom next spring.

So it is with climate change today. Many people are a tad solipsistic and behave as if the happenings during their existence define reality; yet, the history that must inform here is that of the world, not that of our own little world.

This is why the anthropogenic global warming hysteria is truly fascinating. It's as if those in its grip never heard the phrase "ever-changing Universe." In point of fact, the only constants this side of Heaven are Truth and change. And the climate is no exception.

Nor is recent history. After a noticeable temperature increase from the mid-19th century till about 1940, there was that mid-20th century cooling trend; this was following by a return to warming between the mid-1970s and late 1990s. Now even that has abated, with temperatures having remained relatively flat or even dropping since 1998. Someone please tell Al Gore.

Why these natural cycles exist is a subject of some debate. While CO2 is widely "implicated" in global warming (and the notion that CO2 is harmful is a bit fanciful; for instance, crop yields increase when CO2 levels are higher; this is why gardeners pump it into greenhouses), a better explanation might be fluctuating solar cycles. This is the assertion of Canadian scientists conducting research on climate change. Reporting on this, Investor's Business Daily tells us:

R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says that 'CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales.'

Rather, he says, 'I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet.'

This information isn't new or revolutionary, just largely ignored.� Of course, I've also heard that temperature variations are related to the amount of salt in the oceans, so I'm unsure of what the cause is. And I'm certainly no climate scientist.

I'm also not a frog.

So I am quite sure of what the cause isn't: Man. This is because I know history.

The Earth has seen at least four major ice ages and numerous minor ones during the last 1.5 million years, and each cycle was followed by a period of warming.� And these and other climatic vagaries occurred despite the absence of man's meddling hands.� For example, there was:

The Cryogenian Period, during which the planet was entirely covered by ice and snow.
A period where glaciers were virtually gone the world over. �
The time of the dinosaurs, where CO2 levels were 5 to 10 times what they are today and foliage was lush.
An age when the Florida sea level was 100 feet higher than today and another when it was 300 feet lower. �
More recently, we experienced what is known as the "Little Ice Age," which followed the "Medieval Warm Period" and extended from approximately the 16th century to the mid-19th. Thus, it isn't surprising that we had been experiencing a slight warming because we have been emerging from that period. To read more about this, read Professor Syun-Ichi Akasofu's article on the recovery from the Little Ice Age at TheNewAmerican.com.

Aside from history, a grasp of current events wouldn't hurt, either. Note that:

South America just had its coldest winter in 90 years. �
Afghanistan is being visited with the coldest weather since it started keeping records; low temperatures have thus far claimed more than 650 lives.
Tajikistan is "facing an energy crisis in the midst of the coldest winter in more than 25 years."
Mumbai, India is experiencing its coldest weather in 40 years.
Overall, the planet just experienced its second-coldest January in 15 years. �

Oh, we shouldn't base conclusions on anecdotal evidence? �

Exactly. �

Yet, when we view these events against the backdrop of trends, both historical and recent, it appears reasonable to conclude that the sun might have set on global warming. �

Whatever the trend, it's even more reasonable to say that it's the work of Mother Nature, not man. The Earth has many seasons: The 90,000-year ice-age cycles and 10,000-year interglacial warm periods; 1500-year cycles of warming and cooling; and then winter, spring, summer and fall. There are cycles, cycles within cycles, and cycles within those cycles. It's a very confusing picture, but one that was drawn before man graced the planet and by a hand infinitely more powerful.

As for our current capacity for understanding climate, Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, describes "weather and climate science" as being in a "primitive state." Thus, are we to believe predictions about the temperature 50 years hence?� Science can't even tell us definitively what the weather will be like on Thursday. The only thing we can know for sure is that it will be different.

And the only ones who don't understand this are frogs and those who mistake moments � chronological or ideological � for a fair sample of eternity.
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Old 13-02-2008, 08:43 AM
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Re: The Sun Also Sets by INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Please, if you're going to post long essays disagreeing with the overwhelming consensus among climate scientists, try to post up-to-date peer-reviewed scientific information, not editorials and recycled rubbish from lying politicos or confused far-right hacks.

Kenneth Tapping replied to this article, saying "The stuff on the web came from a casual chat with someone who managed to misunderstand what I said ... It is the opinion of scientists, including me, that global warming is a major issue".

It is uncontroversial that there are solar cycles, and that they affect the climate, and that the climate has changed massively over millions of years - none of these things undermines the massive evidence for anthropogenic climate change, or for its very serious consequences.
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Old 13-02-2008, 08:52 AM
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Re: The Sun Also Sets by INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

i second mercadante
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Old 13-02-2008, 12:39 PM
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Re: The Sun Also Sets by INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Environmentalists do their best to have us believe that GW is all our own fault, but how can they really be so sure. Scientists say that other planets such as Mars are experiencing changes such as melting ice-caps, Is this also our fault? Have NASA sent up more Rovers than they are admitting to?
A recent report by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization said that livestock produces more greenhouse gases than cars, planes, and all other forms of transportation put together. Britain's Independent News says the report blames cow flatulence and manure for one third of all methane emissions, warming the earth 20 times faster than carbon dioxide.
The world's 1.5 billion cows are also blamed for acid rain, desertification and the destruction of coral reefs. So there we have a solution, slaughter all livestock and save the planet-job done!
The Sunday Telegraph says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reduced its estimate of human affect on global warming by 25 percent. And it has changed its mind on how much sea levels will rise, by half. Damn it! Does this mean I won't need those new green wellies after all.

People tend to put their trust in those who claim to know and I would say to you that you don't know. Cooling and warming of our planet has gone on for millions of years, or is that something you don't believe either. If all this GW is making the world a hotter place, why do my heating bills keep going up.
Weather forecasters cant even tell us what our weather will be like tomorrow, never mind what it will be like in a hundred years time. The forecast for today for this area was cloudy, misty and with temps around 4 or 5 degrees. Nothing could be further from the truth, there's not a cloud in the sky, not even one little teeny-weeny one on the horizon, and the temp is + 12. I think you (clever) environmentalists need to give the straight thinking population a break.
That reminds me, I must stock-up on some SPF 10,000 sun block before it's too late, anyone seen my Boots card?
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Old 13-02-2008, 12:46 PM
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Re: The Sun Also Sets by INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

aside from what you have written here, which i may answer and discus later, and elsewhere on this site can i ask you what your interest is in this site gfilmsuk?
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Old 13-02-2008, 12:58 PM
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Re: The Sun Also Sets by INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Global Warming
by Tom McClintock
Speech: At the Western Conservative Political Action Conference,
October 12, 2007

batr.net/cohoctonwindwatch/2007/10/global-warming-by-tom-mcclintock.html

Global Warming by Tom McClintock
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Old 13-02-2008, 02:48 PM
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Re: The Sun Also Sets by INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Quote:
Originally Posted by gfilmsuk View Post
Environmentalists do their best to have us believe that GW is all our own fault, but how can they really be so sure.
Which environmentalists? All the ones I know think that global warming is a natural process that's been added to by man over the last 150 years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gfilmsuk View Post
Scientists say that other planets such as Mars are experiencing changes such as melting ice-caps, Is this also our fault? Have NASA sent up more Rovers than they are admitting to?
Until we find a planet that's evenl remotely similar to earth I think it's dangerous to make comparisons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gfilmsuk View Post
A recent report by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization said that livestock produces more greenhouse gases than cars, planes, and all other forms of transportation put together. Britain's Independent News says the report blames cow flatulence and manure for one third of all methane emissions, warming the earth 20 times faster than carbon dioxide. The world's 1.5 billion cows are also blamed for acid rain, desertification and the destruction of coral reefs. So there we have a solution, slaughter all livestock and save the planet-job done!
Again, I think environmentalists will happily agree that global warming isn't all manmade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gfilmsuk View Post
The Sunday Telegraph says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reduced its estimate of human affect on global warming by 25 percent. And it has changed its mind on how much sea levels will rise, by half. Damn it! Does this mean I won't need those new green wellies after all.
Does this mean that you now accept the IPCC findings? It shows an incredible degree of courage and honesty for them admit they were wrong. As I see it, they were actually just zero-ing in on the accuracy of their initial estimates.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gfilmsuk View Post
People tend to put their trust in those who claim to know and I would say to you that you don't know.
I don't know anyone who's giving 100% guarantees on anything to do with Climate Change. Sometimes we have to put our trust in scientists who spend their entire lifetime studying these subjects. They know considerably more than me, the media, politicians etc. What we're left with isn't 100% fact, it's not gospel, it's just probability...but if the probability is high enough then it's maybe worth listening to them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gfilmsuk View Post
Cooling and warming of our planet has gone on for millions of years, or is that something you don't believe either.
Agreed. But it's only in the last 150 years that we've pulled out huge guantities of coal, oil and gas from the earth, and burnt it to release energy and CO2 into the atmosphere. Is it so difficult to imagine that this could have any effect on the planet's ecosystem?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gfilmsuk View Post
If all this GW is making the world a hotter place, why do my heating bills keep going up. Weather forecasters cant even tell us what our weather will be like tomorrow, never mind what it will be like in a hundred years time. The forecast for today for this area was cloudy, misty and with temps around 4 or 5 degrees. Nothing could be further from the truth, there's not a cloud in the sky, not even one little teeny-weeny one on the horizon, and the temp is + 12.
You're mixing up Global Warming with local warming. In the UK we can go up and down the thermometer more than 40 degrees between winter and summer. Yet, when the earth's global temperature was 5 degrees lower than today's we were in an ice age.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gfilmsuk View Post
I think you (clever) environmentalists need to give the straight thinking population a break.
Of course, some would say that man has had a break for the last 150 years.

Stu
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Last edited by StuartDH; 13-02-2008 at 02:51 PM.
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Old 13-02-2008, 03:28 PM
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Re: The Sun Also Sets by INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

cohoctonwindwatch, we've heard all this before, you don't need to quote it all - why not go back to one of the previous threads and just add your comment - if you really think it's necessary. We certainly don't need biased blah from an investment magazine. Could they have some interest in maintaining petrol usage, I wonder?
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Old 13-02-2008, 03:28 PM
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Re: The Sun Also Sets by INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Quote:
Environmentalists do their best to have us believe that GW is all our own fault
This is false. Environmentalists do not deny the existence of non-anthropogenic global warming, they just don't use it as a smokescreen to deny the existence and seriousness of AGW.

Please note that the very basic fact underpinning all the science is that gases like CO2 in the atmosphere have an insulating effect on planets. Our understanding of Mars and Venus confirms this, rather than disconfirming it. We are certainly not the only generators of CO2, methane, etc, and no environmentalist has ever claimed that. However we have changed the composition of the atmosphere considerably, and it is really up to the denialists to explain how this could fail to have a the expected effect, as well as explaining away our many observations showing that it is having it.

Quote:
The Sunday Telegraph says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has reduced its estimate of human affect on global warming by 25 percent
You do not give The Sunday Telegraph's data, but if this story the one I remember, it is also false, and betrays an elementary mathematical misunderstanding - not a great surprise, considering their record. As more data comes in, estimates become more precise. If you start out with a vague estimate of between 10 and 20 for something, and then with more data you refine it to exactly 19, you have not 'reduced your estimate'!

Quote:
Cooling and warming of our planet has gone on for millions of years, or is that something you don't believe either.
As I said in my previous post, "It is uncontroversial that ... the climate has changed massively over millions of years - none of these things undermines the massive evidence for anthropogenic climate change, or for its very serious consequences." There have been mass extinctions caused by climate change in the past, too. A thing is not somehow made perfectly pleasant by having occurred before.

But perhaps I should infer that you don't actually read opposing arguments, and give up answering you.
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Old 21-02-2008, 06:37 PM
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Re: The Sun Also Sets by INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Quote:
Originally Posted by gfilmsuk View Post
The world's 1.5 billion cows are also blamed for acid rain, desertification and the destruction of coral reefs.
That is human interferance for you. deforestation by humans to grow cash crops and farm animals for humans is causing desertification. Building hotels for humans on coast land is destroying coral reefs. Humans touching corals kills them. Sound like humans are causing climate change to me.
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Old 20-04-2008, 04:46 PM
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Re: Solar Activity Causing Climate Change

Quote:
Originally Posted by cohoctonwindwatch View Post
Climate Change: Not every scientist is part of Al Gore's mythical "consensus." Scientists worried about a new ice age seek funding to better observe something bigger than your SUV — the sun.

Al Gore's quackumentary should be viewed with disdain and with the view of brainwashing our children. Our famous Mr Gore has Carbon Offsetting interests...and that can NOT be denied.


Of course he still wants to propagate the MMGW/CC poison.
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Old 20-04-2008, 05:33 PM
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Re: Solar Activity Causing Climate Change

Oh no, I am seeing deja vu again.

Or did someone say that before

Couldn't the person/persons who suffer these delusions just look at the previous mails?
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Old 20-04-2008, 06:05 PM
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Re: Solar Activity Causing Climate Change

[quote=Paul mabbott;264471]Oh no, I am seeing deja vu again.

Verbose!
Quote:

Or did someone say that before

Couldn't the person/persons who suffer these delusions just look at the previous mails?

If I can interpret your posy quickly, you sir are deluded, and clinging to a sinking ship. Has nobody told you there has been NO GW since 1998?

CO2 rise ALWAYS follows a Warming trend.
See Beer/Lambert Law
NO warming of the troposphere as supposed by the models
Models do NOT take into account solar eruptivity and clouds (albedo)
NO observational data to back up MMGWT (if there is then post it)
Much to be gained by MMGWT
IPCC - poilitical orgainsation that studies the final draft line by line - if they don't like it, it's changed. No doubt about that.

'Consensus' - horsedung

Look up Oregon petition
More recently - Manhattan Declaration.

Who's deluded?
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Old 20-06-2008, 10:42 AM
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Re: Solar Activity Causing Climate Change

Quote:
Originally Posted by griffgrouch View Post
Al Gore's quackumentary should be viewed with disdain and with the view of brainwashing our children. Our famous Mr Gore has Carbon Offsetting interests...and that can NOT be denied.


Of course he still wants to propagate the MMGW/CC poison.
Oh yeah I can see your point - (Massive injection of sarcasm initiated) - We should all stop brainwashing our children right this second.. tell them that if the adults in charge of our current world economy are free to continue on their ignorant path, we will have plenty of pollution from all the burned oil, and fake wars, be still greedier but richer by unfair trade, and all happy consumers of cheaply manufactured Chinese imports.

I hate to witness how some parents love to imagine a bountiful future economy for their children while ignoring the reality of their own bad choices as parents, that continue to perpetuate an uncaring attitude to wildlife, the environment, and the impoverished. Instead they complain at scientists and public figures who speak out on it because they dont know why they should bother to think about it when hardly anyone else they know does.

Carbon offsetting is an attempt to bring the pollution of big business into a more tenable position for criticism - not the be all and end all of the global warming debate.

If your Mr Gore gets criticism on his film, (quackumentary is fair - 'doctoral' overtones - since it brought about much scientific peer reviewing, that documentaries very rarely do)
I dont really think world+dog will care much - I think the important message got through to most people, that if someone with enough of a public stature will speak about it, there must be something in it - and obviously there is, unless you are brainwashed ofc.
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Old 20-06-2008, 10:59 AM
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Re: Solar Activity Causing Climate Change

[quote=griffgrouch;264486]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul mabbott View Post
Oh no, I am seeing deja vu again.

Verbose!


If I can interpret your posy quickly, you sir are deluded, and clinging to a sinking ship. Has nobody told you there has been NO GW since 1998?

CO2 rise ALWAYS follows a Warming trend.
See Beer/Lambert Law
NO warming of the troposphere as supposed by the models
Models do NOT take into account solar eruptivity and clouds (albedo)
NO observational data to back up MMGWT (if there is then post it)
Much to be gained by MMGWT
IPCC - poilitical orgainsation that studies the final draft line by line - if they don't like it, it's changed. No doubt about that.

'Consensus' - horsedung

Look up Oregon petition
More recently - Manhattan Declaration.

Who's deluded?

Is your comment about no Global warming since 1998 based on the misinformation surrounding it being the hottest year since the 1950s, because if you correctly take note of the average temperatures, the unusually hot year of 1998 was equaled by 2005. The years surrounding 2005, were hotter than the years about 1998. This is a debunked point, in fact global rise in temperature is still ongoing and is unrelated to the sun cycle. The former hypothesis that the suns cycle is the reason for global warming offered the year 1998 to try and give proof that the world was no longer warming - poor science and analysis.

Unless you are observing from venus, and cant even see through the atmosphere there, because of all the CO2, you dont need to go to the troposphere to measure temperature - in all the atmosphere BELOW the troposphere, is where all the weather systems and clouds are.. If you did any physics, you'll remember convection, that transfers heat in a liquid and gaseous model? Do you understand what massive heat sinks like polar regions do when heat is transfered to them? What does net average temperature mean? why should this be evident throughout the entire sphere of the globe? Do you realise some regions of Antarctica have ice shelves which are extending? What is the temperature difference there?
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