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  #51 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2006, 10:47 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

The document - Abstract: Tables to final report - anexed to The risk to cattle from wildlife species other than badgers in areas of high herd breakdown risk (SE3010) gives the numbers of carcasses for each species.

For the Brown Rat 317 were collected.

To quote from 'the book'
"Dr Paul Barrow an expert bacteriologist has made it graphically clear how misleading it can be to rely on unmethodical small chance samples..........To be certain of discovering a 5% character (in this case M. bovis) nearly one hundred random samples are needed more or less simultaneously.............."

They go on to suggest that to pick up 0.5% a sample of 600 would be required. And "If this seems an absurdly small prevalence to bother about, we must remember that the incidence of bovine TB in cattle is ... nationally about 0.01%" - that in 1986 - now more like 0.25%. This would suggest to me that 1200 rats would be needed, and this a random simultaneous sample.

The book goes on at some length - what I'd like to know is this - does this earlier work still hold good today with regard to ample sizes needed.


The latest TB figures indicate 28,289 cattle slaughtered as bTB positives to end Nov 2005 - There are around 12 million cattle in the UK

This thread was indeed started to highlight the unnecessary slaughter of Badgers.

Should the mouse die that the Badger should live?

No - tackle the issue at source - cows - The Badger Trust can supply some ideas how!
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  #52 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2006, 12:20 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cornwallbadgers
The document - Abstract: Tables to final report -

For the Brown Rat 317 were collected.
Of which 0 (zero) showed signs of infection with bTb

Quote:
Originally Posted by cornwallbadgers
To quote from 'the book'
"Dr Paul Barrow an expert bacteriologist has made it graphically clear how misleading it can be to rely on unmethodical small chance samples..........To be certain of discovering a 5% character (in this case M. bovis) nearly one hundred random samples are needed more or less simultaneously.............."
And yet Badgers show a prevalence of up to 50%

(Again from http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/tb/pdf/sciencesum.pdf)
"M. bovis infection in Badgers is geographically widespread and therefore can be
regarded as endemic in Great Britain (Nolan and Wilesmith, 1994). The
prevalence of M. bovis infection in local Badger populations in South-West
England can vary from 2 or 3 per cent up to 20 per cent or, in some studies, even
50 per cent. At Woodchester Park in Gloucestershire, where researchers of the
Central Science Laboratory have been studying TB in Badgers for more than 25
years, the annual prevalence of bovine TB between 1982 and 1999 has ranged
between 4.2 per cent and 18.9 per cent of those tested (Delahay et al., 2000)."

A link to some of the Badger research mentioned above may be pertinent here
http://www.badgerecology.org/
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  #53 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2006, 01:04 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imaginos
Of which 0 (zero) showed signs of infection with bTb

And yet Badgers show a prevalence of up to 50%

We were discussing research into wildlife other than Badgers, and I was questioning (not attacking anyone btw) whether the methods used for that research were likely to have been effective in identifying bTB in those other mammals.

This doubt was explained to have arisen largely because of a book I read some time ago that suggests that this research may have assesed too small a sample size.
One man's "relatively large" is another man's inadequate it seems. In my last post I asked "does this earlier work still hold good today with regard to sample sizes needed." I'd still like to know!

The report states:
"No evidence of infection was found in Hedgehogs, Rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), Bank Voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and Brown Rats, despite relatively large sample sizes.
The failure to detect infection in Brown Rats is in contrast to previous investigations by MAFF which identified five positive individuals in a sample of 412"


317 does not seem to be a large sample of the south west rat population.

Sorry to be so simplistic about this - but as previosly stated I don't claim to be expert so could we possibly stick to the current thread of this discussion and perhaps move off to other issues later?

Roger
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  #54 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2006, 07:39 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

The point being that there is no need to research the entire epidemiology of the Brown Rat, all we need to know is that it is nowhere near as susceptible to infection as the Badger. With the research being directed at the finding of sources of infection of cattle by bTB, 'the book' claims 100 specimens is enough to detect a 5% rate of infection, which is apparently lower than rates of Badger infection so there is no need to spend extra money determining exactly how much less infective Brown Rats are. There is an alternative method for determining whether Brown Rats are a cause of bTB infection in cattle is to investigate the rat population of an infected farm, I would be amazed if this hasn't already been done, although I can't be bothered to trawl through the literature to find it.

I got drawn into this debate by the fact that people, especially single issue campaigners like cornwallbadgers, constantly try to score easy points by questioning the integrity & intelligence of science & scientists when in reality we should be proud at the quality & independence of scientific research in this country.

Having gotten drawn in to a discussion which, frankly, I'm not really interested in (Badgers are cute, but not endangered or inviolate), I was surprised that I was unable to find any compelling evidence against the fact that Badgers are the likely cause of bTB outbreaks in cattle. This is not to say that culling is the answer, but then our countryside policy has no room for sentimentality it seems & culling is both pragmatic & a potential vote winner among rural communities.
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  #55 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2006, 07:47 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cornwallbadgers
For a peek at NigelP and his mates true colours have a look at http://thehuntinglife.com/forums/ind...showtopic=5045
Many thanks for publicising the huntinglife forum.
I have been looking for a good hunting forum for a while now and see no conflict between hunting and conservation.
They have another member.
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  #56 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2006, 08:44 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imaginos
The point being that there is no need to research the entire epidemiology of the Brown Rat, all we need to know is that it is nowhere near as susceptible to infection as the Badger.
Imaginos - the point is that I questioned whether the research into 'species other than Badgers' was valid as it seemed that too small sizes were being used.
I have asked for clarification - but not received any - as to whether there is any more recent guidance on this.

Currently it would seem that we simply do not know how susceptible the Brown Rat (for example) is to bovine TB.
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Old 11-01-2006, 08:57 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

If the infection rates in species other than Badgers were as high as those recorded for Badgers then the sample sizes would have been large enough to detect this.
Quote:
To be certain of discovering a 5% character (in this case M. bovis) nearly one hundred random samples are needed
As it is these sample sizes have established that they are not as susceptible to bTB as Badgers are & therefore less likely to be a source of infection for cattle.
The sample sizes are not large enough to determine the exact level of infection in some non-Badger species, and, as stated in the report, the sample size for House Mouse & sika deer were too small full stop. However the exact level of infection is not the important issue, it is the level of infection compared to Badgers. A glance at the costing for the research will tell you that it cost £750,000 to determine that the level of infection of (for example) Brown Rat is, at most, less than 5%, I cannot see the reason to spend the same again in order to find whether the actual value is 0.5% or 2.5%, when infection levels in Badgers are frequently as high as 20%.
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  #58 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2006, 09:15 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imaginos
As it is these sample sizes have established that they are not as susceptible to bTB as Badgers are & therefore less likely to be a source of infection for cattle.
Hey - hang on here.

This is a bit of a quantum leap for me.

The statement "therefore less likely to be a source of infection for cattle", I mean.

Would this not depend on myriad factors including numbers of rats, proximity of rats to cattle, THE METHOD OF TRANSMISSION, ETC, ETC?

The incidence of bovine TB in cattle is nationally about 0.25% - that doesn't seem to stop the disease spreading from cattle to the wider environent, and would seem to indicate that it's not as simple as just to consider levels of susceptability in a species
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Old 11-01-2006, 10:07 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

OK I've spent the last half hour searching for references detailing transmission of bTB from Brown Rat to cattle (or to anything else for that matter). I've looked at reports & papers from the UK, USA, South Africa & New Zealand and nowhere (I'll repeat, nowhere) is there any suggestion that there is a direct link. Whereas the Badger is consistently referred to as a maintenance host (essentially a reservoir for the disease). Given this, and my belief that if there was a direct link beteween rat infection & cattle infection it would have been discovered by now (I did find many instances of rats being named as the source of infection of numerous other diseases (eg bubonic plague, Brucilla, and possibly salmonella), I think we can rule out the rat as an alternative scapegoat.

The incidence of bTB in cattle is .25%, but the disease does not spread from cattle to the wider environment, but from the wider environment to cattle, this is already established. What is also established is that the major reservoir is Badgers, what has not been established is the mode of transmission. Either way the answer does not lie with looking for other culprits, but in determining the best way to 'drain the reservoir'
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Old 11-01-2006, 11:12 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imaginos
What is also established is that the major reservoir is Badgers, what has not been established is the mode of transmission. Either way the answer does not lie with looking for other culprits, but in determining the best way to 'drain the reservoir'
A major wildlife reservoir is Badgers

The major reservoir is cattle.

Was not the whole point of the item of research that we were discussing to determine "The risk to cattle from wildlife species other than badgers in areas of high herd breakdown risk (SE3010)"?
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Old 11-01-2006, 11:59 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

maybe this does not play in UK a role, but here in Germany and Austria main reinfections of cows with tbc and i talk of bovine and M.tbc is caused by humen, ,who had this infection once.
Maybe also something to think about.
I still believe, if the stables and cows are not checked regularly a reinfection is homemade .
Badgers are maybe one factor , but the main factor are the farms itself in my opinion.
But it is cheaper to kill Badgers as to do regulare country wide tests of each cow and each farm and all what belongs to that, also milkcontrolls, meat controlls, information about milk hygiene and hygiene in stable etc
But well, maybe I am completely wrong there. I only know how it was here, when we had 60% of your cattle infected with tbc.


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Old 11-01-2006, 12:40 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

From "Tuberculosis in free-ranging wildlife: detection, diagnosis and management". G.W. de Lisle, R.G. Bengis, S.M. Scott, & D.J.O’Brien. Rev. sci. tech. Off. Int. Epiz. (2002)

'Tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium bovis has been identified in a wide variety of free-ranging wildlife as well as domestic animals. In recent years, awareness of the importance of tb in wildlife has increased, not only as potential reservoir of infection for domestic animals, but also as a threat to valuable wildlife species…Only a small proportion of wildlife species that become infected with M. bovis can act as maintenance hosts of this organism. In these species, the infection can persist through horizontal transmission between individuals in the absence of any other source of M. bovis. Examples of free-ranging wildlife that can act as maintenance hosts include the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), Badger (Meles meles), bison (Bison bison), African buffalo (Syncerous caffer) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). In contrast, a number of species referred to as ‘spill-over’ hosts become infected with M. bovis, but the infection will only occur sporadically or persist within these populations if a maintenance host is present in the ecosystem,


From "Zoonotic aspects of Mycobacterium bovis and Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare complex (MAC)" Franck Bieta, Maria Laura Boschirolib, Marie Françoise Thorelb and Laurence A. Guilloteau. Vet. Res. 36 (2005)

' Epidemiologic surveys performed in Europe, North America and New Zealand have demonstrated the existence and importance of environmental and wildlife reservoirs of mycobacterial infections that limit the attempts of disease control programmes.'

From "RESEARCH PAPER 98/63 1ST JUNE 1998 Bovine Tuberculosis" House of Commons Report.
'It comes as a surprise to many to find that many farmers do not hold Badgers
in quite the same level of respect. This is because there has been an accumulation of evidence which suggests that Badgers may be carriers of bovine tuberculosis and therefore responsible for the failure of disease control measures in parts of the country where the Badger population is most dense.'

The problem is that bTB could potentially be eradicated in cattle in the UK with the necessary controls if the wildlife reservoir could be removed, but not if it can't.
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Old 11-01-2006, 07:21 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Purely as a matter of interest, do you have a scientific background/involved in the sciences, Imaginos? (Feel free to tell me to keep my nose out)

Cheers
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Old 12-01-2006, 11:28 AM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Does it show? I'm more of a taxonomist/ecologist than a pure scientist as I can't be bothered with the maths most of the time.

My final word on sampling size is paraphrasing something I heard in a talk today. The person involved (Dr Jane Memmot of Bristol University) was sampling caterpillars in Hawaii in order to determine the presence & numbers of introduced biocontrol pasasites. They sampled 2000 caterpillars over two years, but with retrospective analysis it was found that they could have sampled 10% of these & got the same result statistically. She said "To record rare events you need to sample hard, but anything common can be picked up with a relatively small sample size". It's what has taken me three or four posts to try & say and the good doctor has summed up in a sentence-another reason why I wouldn't call myself a scientist.
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Old 14-01-2006, 02:30 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Thought this forum might be interested in this from our local paper:

Roger

Stop DEFRA killing more Badgers - www.stopthecull.info


The Cornishman Newspaper 12 January 2006

[SIZE="5"]Country Byways[/SIZE]
[SIZE="4"]Delete[/SIZE]

DON'T know what's happening to official views of wildlife. On one hand
we have never been more ecofriendly or cared more for birds, bats, rare
plants or other protected species. A big proportion of the country is
now vegetarian, and the principles of the sanctity of life are more
widely held than ever before. But on the other I keep hearing calls for
what sounds like the Final Solution for unpopular creatures.

The ongoing tension between livestock farmers and Badgers over the
spread of bovine TB is leading towards a proposal for mass Badger
extermination. The Badger, Britain's largest wild mammal, is already
protected, and you or I could face a stiff fine for even hurting one.
But when commercial interests, environmental changes and intractable
disease problems come into the picture the authorities are prepared to
think the absolutely unthinkable. Which in this case means making plans
to draw lines on the map and then simply pressing the delete button for
every Badger within them.

I am an ex-farmer and have enormous sympathy for their increasing
predicament. I know how it feels to have TB reactors and put plans on
hold for 60 days or more, and then possibly lose a valuable beast while
the rest of the herd is quarantined. Businesses cannot sustain that
indefinitely, and farmers are beleaguered enough as it is. A
considerable amount of strategy and ingenuity is required to keep
diseased Badgers and cattle apart, even if many of us believe it is the
cattle rather than the Badgers which hold and spread the disease. But
sheer elimination is the solution least likely to be effective, on
several counts.

Firstly many people simply won't stand for it. If the animal rights
activists get mad over laboratory experiments and Fox-hunting, they are
hardly likely to wink at mass Badger slaughter. Even less committed
people will be repulsed by the prospect of the charismatic childhood
favourite, a symbol of the British countryside, being gassed, shot,
poisoned etc, in vast numbers.

Sympathy for farmers can never be relied upon, and many people will back
the Badger against the cow.

Total elimination will be harder in practice than in theory. Fewer and
fewer people now know the ways of the country and not all those who do
will be prepared to give up their local knowledge of Badger holts for
such an unpopular cause. DEFRA will certainly be denied access to some
areas of private land, which will require legal moves and possible use
of force to overcome.

Many previous cases have demonstrated clearly that trying to eliminate a
species has a very short-term effect: A cull creates a vacuum in nature
which nature is quick to fill, and Badgers would not be off the scene
for long, requiring more painful and controversial episodes of destruction.

And if a cull was successful, what if the problem didn't go away? Would
the finger then point to foxes, Rabbits, rats, mice, birds? And at what
point would we stop the massacre?

A cull is the bluntest of blunt instruments, cruel, short-sighted and
doomed to fail.

We have to be able to do better than that.

MS.
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Old 14-01-2006, 02:44 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Very interesting and very true ( the last bit especially )
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Old 14-01-2006, 03:19 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

MS,
do farmers in UK get financial help of state, when cows must be killed or come into quarantaine?


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Old 14-01-2006, 04:33 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Yes!

In 2004-5, livestock farmers will get £1.3 billion in subsidies. Dairy farmers will get £100 million in subsidies. TB testing and compensation will cost tax payers £70 million.
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Old 14-01-2006, 05:52 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

That means that the farmers are not endangered in existence if there is a consequent eleminating of infected cows.
I do understand the feelings and the problems of lifestock farmers, i grew up under lifestockfarmers and still live here under them. But only to fight Badger population is simply not enough as the infected cows cause a permanent contamination of the fields and ground. So, even if the Badgers leave... there are still thousands of sick cows which infect others and also wildlife...
I do not really understand under these circumstances why permanent controlls of each stable and each cow , horses and pigs.. cannot be done.
If only cows with papers, which show they are TBC tested, are sold and bought, would bring a lot of more security into stables.

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Old 14-01-2006, 05:54 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Quote:
In 2004-5, livestock farmers will get £1.3 billion in subsidies. Dairy farmers will get £100 million in subsidies. TB testing and compensation will cost tax payers £70 million.
Here's a piece copied from "Farmers Weekly" magazine.

Look Who Gets Subsidies

I wolud like to draw your attention to an article in the Guardian (8/12) on food subsidies.
It states the largest individual payments in the UK go to multinational food companies. Tate and Lyle took over £227 million in 2003/04 from the CAP (common agricultural policy).
Meadow Foods (a bulk fat manafacturer) received nearly £26m in 03/04; even Gate Gourmet received £500,000 for flying tiny individual helping of milk and sugar into international airspace, therefore qualifying for an export subsidy. Nestle received £11.3m in the same year and Czarnikow £19.6m.
While farmers receive the bulk of the subsidies I feel the remainder should be called manafacturing subsidies.
I count myself a politicised farmer, but I had no idea that some of the main beneficiaries were these vast companies.

I post this only to show that farmers are not the only people receiving the vast amounts qouted above
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Old 14-01-2006, 06:15 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

I am speechless that this is still rumbling on what else can be said that is relevant,and not just padding ?
Rename zebra /panda crossings, Badger crossings before they all disappear,
defra is not going to listen,scientists know their business,the common agricultural policy is possibly open to abuse,a lot of people love an animal that has iffy health problems that cause problems
wait for it
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Old 14-01-2006, 06:22 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

I have nothing further to add Nightshade, and you are correct and this thread is starting to go full circle and get back off topic..
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Old 14-01-2006, 07:17 PM
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Re: Badgers to be Killed?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nightshade
I am speechless that this is still rumbling on what else can be said that is relevant,and not just padding ?
Rename zebra /panda crossings, Badger crossings before they all disappear,
defra is not going to listen,scientists know their business,the common agricultural policy is possibly open to abuse,a lot of people love an animal that has iffy health problems that cause problems
wait for it
Totally agree with you Nightshade - time this one was put to bed - it's going nowhere
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