Where have all the Kestrels gone?

[luckyoldme]

I live in Reading, not far from the M4 and the M40 and have the pleasure of seeing lots of Red Kites flying overhead, even over my back garden. However, I travel up and down the motorways a fair bit, and I've seen hardly any Kestrels this year. Are they in decline?
Are they being outcompeted or scared off by the Kites who seem to be thriving? Is this a case of one predator benefitting to the detriment of another? Are they still prominent where you live?
Thoughts welcome...

[Dogghound]

Originally Posted by luckyoldme

I live in Reading, not far from the M4 and the M40 and have the pleasure of seeing lots of Red Kites flying overhead, even over my back garden. However, I travel up and down the motorways a fair bit, and I've seen hardly any Kestrels this year. Are they in decline?
Are they being outcompeted or scared off by the Kites who seem to be thriving? Is this a case of one predator benefitting to the detriment of another? Are they still prominent where you live?
Thoughts welcome...

Nationally kestrel are a declining species, and certainly last winter had an adverse affect on the British population with extended periods of snow cover causing poor hunting conditions. The cold weather also rapidly decreased small mammal populations. This results in less birds to breed the following year, if this winter is quite mild then hopefully numbers will recover again. Certainly around here in N.Yorks/E.Yorks they have had a good breeding season. Numbers at this time of year are around their peak, and here there are plenty of birds around, including lots of 1st winters from the good breeding season.

Increasing red kite numbers are unlikely to have that much of an impact on kestrel numbers. In broad terms red kite are a generalist, kestrel a specialist. I would not expect red kite to put huge amounts of pressure of field vole populations and neither species compete for the same nest sites. Both speies co-exist at higher densities in other parts of Europe with even more raptor species. At most red kites may occassionally rob prey from kestrels, but red kites in my experience tend to be quite placid birds.

[King Edward]

Kestrel numbers seem to have been fairly stable for the last 25 years or so (BTO), so there isn't much evidence for a long term downward trend.

[Dogghound]

Originally Posted by King Edward

Kestrel numbers seem to have been fairly stable for the last 25 years or so (BTO), so there isn't much evidence for a long term downward trend.

It is quite subjective, certainly some sources indicate population declines of as much as half the British population since the 1970's. Certainly the population peaks and troughs as you would expect with a species with this kind of reliance on volatile small mammal populations. The conservation status within the BTO link you posted in itself indicates a 25-50% decline hence the reason Kestrel is BAP listed and Amber listed. The flucuating long term trend reference is a future prediction of the status. Certainly a species which appears to be becoming more stable in some areas, but still declining in others.

Historically the species recovered from oganochlorines but then due to further intensive agricultural changes it started to decline again at a much more steady rate.

All these sources reference or provide evidence of a downward trend in populations. (Excuse my lazy referencing).

Gibbons et al (1993) The New Atlas of Breeding birds in Britain and Ireland: 1988-1991

Greenwood et al (2003) Birds of Prey in a changing environment

Riddle, G. (1993) A 20 year study of Kestrelsin Ayrshire. Scottish birds 17

Clements R. (2008). The Common Kestrel population in Britain. British Birds, 101

The last of which is perhaps the most interesting on kestrel population dynamics in Britain.

[Shrike]

I'd say i've noticed a slight decline over the years but still see plenty about ,Buzzards on the other hand seem to have enjoyed an increase imo. Must admit that don't seem to see as many kestrels on motorway verges as i used to.

[aeshna5]

I've certainly noticed a decline in Kestrels over the last decade or so around west London, though there are good quality sites that do support them still.

The BTO recently announced that they have had a good breeding season nationally this year.

It does seem ironic there are fewer Kestrels in London now as when I was growing up it was the only raptor to be seen yet we have many more species doing well here now- Sparrowhawks widespread throughout the area, c20 pairs of breeding Peregrine, breeding Hobbies in the suburbs, regular Buzzard sightings + Red Kite sightings becoming more common too.

[faz]

i see kestrels often here in the summer a sparrowhawk and kestrel were having a dispute

[Shrike]

Originally Posted by aeshna5

I've certainly noticed a decline in Kestrels over the last decade or so around west London, though there are good quality sites that do support them still.

The BTO recently announced that they have had a good breeding season nationally this year.

It does seem ironic there are fewer Kestrels in London now as when I was growing up it was the only raptor to be seen yet we have many more species doing well here now- Sparrowhawks widespread throughout the area, c20 pairs of breeding Peregrine, breeding Hobbies in the suburbs, regular Buzzard sightings + Red Kite sightings becoming more common too.

same here Aeshna , growing up i only used to see kestrels and only seen the first Buzzard in this area in the last decade or so. Good to see other raptors doing well. And hopefully the kestrels will make a comeback in your area as like i said only a very slight decline here , kestrels are wonderful birds.

[dunkeld]

I have certainly noticed a big drop in Kestrel numbers here in east Perthshire. I rarely see one these days and I drive around the Perthshire
area an awful lot .
There are cerainly a fair number of Buzzards in this area in recent years,I don't suppose it is too unlikely that the Buzzards will predate on the Kestrel if the chance comes up !

The Kestrel was a very common bird around this region in years past but is something of a rarity nowadays,

[Ferret]

Good numbers of Kestrel in the Cambridge area this autumn, I think they must have had a good breeding season this summer around here.

Ferret