What will happen to Comet Holmes?

[flying red fox]

Iam thinking it collided with an Asteriod and smashed to pieces, i hope its not the case, will it return?

I was watching it for a while early this morning while not getting much sleep, was a nice clear night and the temp was -3, brrr! Luckily it was within view of my bedroom window.

[brucemstrs]

As far as I aware nothing unusual has happened to comet Holmes. apart from the sudden eruptions of gases which have increased by many times the comets magnitude.

Even this has happened before, though I don't believe anyone knows exactly why it should happen in this erretic way.

It's orbital period is about 7 years, and almost circular around the sun, so it is not so eccentric in it's movements like most comets are, and it has no points at which it's closeness to the sun is greatly changed.

It does inhabit that area where asteroids also exist, but it has done so successfully for an awful long time.

[carlos_dfc]

3 possibilities as to what happened...

As has already been mentioned - asteroid strike - well it IS currently smack-bang in the middle of the asteroid belt.
Not all that likely though, because as Bruce says - it's been successfully passing through the asteroid belt for literally eons - and asteroids aren't nearly as close to each other as Sc-Fi movies etc would have you believe.

Asteroid near-miss - more likely than a 'strike'.
Many comets are not one solid lump, but are a conglomeration of smaller pieces, held together by gravity, with the gaps filled in with loose dust/gravel/ice.
A near-miss could cause some pieces to move relative to each other, dislodging the loose 'packing' - which has subsequently 'outgassed' to form the huge coma that we are seeing now.
(That coma is actually larger in extent than Jupiter )

Third, and most likely cause is a collapsing 'sink-hole'
As I said, many comets made up of smaller pieces, but sometimes the gaps aren't completely filled - these gaps are 'sink-holes'
If one collapsed, you'd get pretty-much the same effect as a near-miss by another object.

Holmes has done this before - in 1892 - in fact, it was the 1892 outburst which made it prominent enough to be discovered by Holmes in the first place.

And as for what will happen to it - well, the coma is already beginning to be blown away from the comet by the solar wind, creating a (currently very dim) tail. The main body of the comet itself, will continue to orbit, the same way it alwasy has.
Even if it breaks up - the pieces will all still pretty-much follow the same orbit that the original comet had.

Comet Schwassmann-Wachmann (SW3) broke up last year - all the pieces continued merrily on their way - following each other, all on a fairly similar course.

[brucemstrs]

Well explained Carlos - Thanks for that.

[petermcgain]

That coma is actually larger in extent than Jupiter

Good to get more info on the comet, thanks for that, but I'm slightly puzzled as to the comet's size as it must be MANY times bigger than Jupiter as it appears so large. I understand the comet is somewhere between Mars and Jupiter in its distance from Earth and would therefore appear quite small. What am I missing here?!

[wildlifesnapper]

Hi

according to one of the papers holmes is now larger than the sun making it the largest thing in the solar system.

Just to compare;

here is a photo taken on 3rd of november.



and here is one taken with the same telescope and at the same magnification last night.



neil

[The Black Rabbit]

What SUPERB photographs Neil!
Cheers for sharing them!
Doug

[brucemstrs]

Refer back to the explanation given by Carlos above.

The Comet is indeed a small object, made up mainly of ice. When comets approach the Sun they start to give off material as gas as they become affected more and more by radiated energy from the Sun. The closer they approach, the more they become affected, the brighter becomes their Corona and Tail.

Imagine it as a kind of evaporation which becomes visibly brighter as a Corona around the comet. The solar wind, energy radiating from the Sun, sweeps this gas away from the parent,forming a trail across space , this is the Comet's tail, which will always be formed in the direction diametrically away from the Sun. ( The direction of the Solar Wind ).

The reason for some puzzlement with Comet Holmes, is in its more stable orbit out near Jupiter. It does not approach the Sun in any drastic way, making these eruptions of gassy Corona a little more difficult to explain.

[sometimes]

What are the chances that the trajectory of the comet will change with the presumed (on my part) expulsion of material? I guess a comet is relatively light so any force would tend to have an effect. The effect may be a fraction of a degree in one direction, but over the course of it's orbit it might have significance? A fraction of a degree might bring it closer to earth next time round?

[paulchandler6]

A very informative thread. Something I am interested in but know little about. Thanx

Paul