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Originally Posted by fairplay  I appreciate Hobjobs concerns, but methinks he's exaggerating slightly as when the sea does breach again at Minsmere, only the North reed-bed will become flooded and only inland as far as the bund already in place and only south as far as the raised path which takes visitors from the reception to the East hide on the beach.
Although I hate to say this, the Sizewell Stations Complex will remain safe from the sea for many years to come and the government of the day will have to ensure it does. |
In the short term that is true Fairplay - indeed there are plans afoot to raise the North Wall (the main path to the sea from the visitor centre) to hold the inevitable breach to the North marsh area. Shot term here means 5-20 years.
A drainage system has already been built to speed up drainage of the salt water that ingresses, and reduce chances of slat water getting into the Scrape proper.
The big report by Pye and Blott in 2006 [1] has of course been superceded in some respects. In autumn 2007 there was the largest over-topping since the storm of 1953, and this over-topping occured in spite of no local storm; the waves were only about a metre high - though there was a stiff breeze, hence the wind blown spume (there was a Northerly Storm at the North end of the North Sea though). The sea was breaking on the inner clay bank (and ran through some of the rabbit holes!).
There was also significant overtopping between the North Wall (Coney Hill) and the sluice - the fans of shingles are still present.
But the cliff erosion conitnues at half a metre a year, and that bit of beach at the North end of the North marsh is just not going to be there in a very few years.
Sea level rise is variously predicted to be 15cm - 2m!! Storms are expected to increase. Half a meter increase will mean the shingle will over top almost every spring tides.
In terms of protecting the Sizewell power stations I agree that it is likely that they will be fine in our and our children's lifetimes. But the half life of plutonium is 24,000 years, so for our future generations we need to protect the contaminated sites for 10 x 24,000. Human unity has not been too good in the last 1,000 years.
When the Minsmere cliffs have gone, I don't give the North wall or the New cut (the Minsmere river leading to the sluice) much chance of surviving even 100 years.
[1]
http://www.allenpress.com/pdf/coas_22_232_453_473.pdf