Caught up with the first two episodes today. Very interesting I thought and I like Dr Stewart as a presenter (although I did wonder why they had the professor of Mathematics at Warwick presenting on climate change until I realised it was a different Iain Stewart). I'll have to wait until episode three is on iPlayer to see it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by forfi  Has the Thames ever frozen ?
When do you think this happened last? |
Many times, it's a very well documented fact going back to Roman Britain. The last frost fair on the Thames was held in 1814 although the river probably froze again after that date. However it definitely hasn't frozen since 1870, but this tells us precisely nothing about the temperature either before or since that date. The winters of 1947 and 1963 were two of the coldest on record but the river didn't freeze. The reason is that between 1865 and 1870 the Victoria and Albert embankments were built. These narrowed the river making it faster flowing which in turn meant that temperatures would have to fall much, much lower for it to freeze. If you don't factor that in then your conclusions will be flawed in much the same way that Dr Roy Spencer's conclusions were flawed when he failed to take into account the degradation of the satelites' orbits.
And even if the Thames freezing was a reliable indicator of the temperature in London it would still tell you nothing at all about global average temperatures.
Dave P.