Hello all,
The IPCC's last report should really have put an end to the are we/ aren't we to blame argument that has, frankly, been postulated for far too many years. (please see
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-re...yr/ar4_syr.pdf for the report if you have the time and patience!) The IPCC report is based on studies of a large number of peer reviewed papers, and there are a large number of meta-analyses (where a group collates and compares a large number of studies on a certain topic to show overall trends, which tend to be subject to less bias, and fewer overall errors due to the number of data collected) that have been collated that show that anthropogenic (ie man-made) climate change is real and is happening (please see the following examples - although many more exist in academic journals which most will not be able to view without subscription -
AAAS ATLAS OF POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT or
BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change -- Oreskes 306 (5702): 1686 -- Science).
There is a general consensus within the scientific community that global anthropogenic climate change is the biggest challenge facing humankind today. Many of the scientists that do not agree with this view have been shown to be funded from interested parties, such as the oil companies and others. I understand that science can be wrong, but when you have such a consensus from so many different branches of the scientific community - from geologists and climatologists (i.e. those that deal with the massive scale over incredibly vast time frames) to ecologists and microbiologists (the small scale and relatively tiny timescales) and everything in between, there really must be something to it. Even George W. Bush has recently publicly stated that the activities of humans is having a catastrophic effect on he Earth's climate!
The consensus is that, unless we can keep the changes down to *an average* (to allow for natural fluctuations of the Earth's temperature) of 2 degrees celsius from pre-industrial levels, then the effects will be catastrophic and irreversible. We are already seeing average changes of 1.6 degrees, and therefore we must see a peak in greenhouse gas emissions by 2015, and then a steady decline thereafter, in order for this change to be manageable.
We are all seeing the effects of these changes - last summer's rain, and every month being "the hottest on record" and this is no coincidence. The incidence of natural disasters is increasing, and will only get worse.
We are effectively watching Rome burn while we all fiddle. However, we do have some hope, because the Kyoto treaty is due for renewal at the end of next year. There are a number of discussions going on around the World, the main ones of which started in Bali last year, will go onto Poznan this year, and will cumulate in Copenhagen next year, where the World's actions and responsibilities will be decided. Side discussions are also going on at EU level, and at the G8 and many other fora. The best thing that we can all do is go with the huge weight of scientific evidence and understand that it is real and that NOW is the time for both our politicians and us as individuals to take clear and decisive actions to help the situation.
I hope that the references that i have provided are useful. I could go on a lot more about this, but as this is only my second ever post on this forum, I think that I will leave it there for now. I don't want to alienate potential friends before i have made them
But please, can we have fewer "is it real" questions, or maybe next time I should just reply with a straight 'yes'.
Thanks all
GG?